Ted's Army: The Voice of Red Sox fans

A destination for Jason Varitek?

Other than people saying he won't be back in Boston, I haven't seen much chatter as to where old friend Jason Varitek will spend 2011. Ken Rosenthal reports one team with interest in his latest blog post at Yardbarker:

The Dodgers have been among the most active teams this off-season, signing three-fifths of their starting rotation and infielder Juan Uribe.

But they’re not finished yet.

Two older free agents – outfielder Johnny Damon, 37, and catcher Jason Varitek, 38 – are among the players on the Dodgers’ radar, according to major-league sources.

In fact, the Dodgers are in contact with virtually every free-agent catcher – Rod Barajas, A.J. Pierzynski, Miguel Olivo – as they try to determine their next step with Russell Martin.

Martin is someone I think Theo is keeping an eye on -- among Saltalamacchia, Hermida, and Andrew Miller, we know Theo has an interest in taking chances on "failed" prospects. Martin has dropped off, but certainly showed talent.

It wouldn't surprise me that the Dodgers, under new manager Don Mattingly, would look for veteran presences from the Sox-Yanks rivalry. Plus, the Dodgers' financial limitations, thanks to the McCourt divorce, are well publicized.

Terrible Articles Will Be Determined by Health, Starting Rotation

I don't mean to pick on Tony Lee here.  I really don't.  And if we ever bump into eachother on the street, I hope to simply walk away with a pleasant pat on the back, a firm handshake and no shiv jammed into my kidney.  That said, there are plenty of worthwhile storylines out there.  We are far too early in the offseason for this kind of nonsense.

The title alone is laughable:  Red Sox' 2011 Playoff Chances Will Be Determined by Health, Starting Rotation

Also: wins.  Also: Health and Starting Rotation of other AL East Teams.  Also: Other AL East Teams wins.

It's a short and simple read.  NESN is running a daily "issues facing the Sox" series, and I'm assuming that Tony's editor was standing behind his desk, barking about an 8am deadline, and Tony just plowed through the first idea that popped into his head.  We've all been there before, so I can sympathize with Tony.

Still, though, it kind of reads like one of my high school essays:

Before last season began the Red Sox made moves to improve their pitching and defense. Many considered those transactions (Adrian Beltre, Marco Scutaro and Mike Cameron, specifically) to come at the expense of the offense. The team would pitch, catch and throw just fine, but would it score enough to be a playoff team?

As it turned out, pitching, catching and throwing was never the strong suit while runs came in bunches. Although many moves still need to be made, the 2011 club figures to have a bit more balance.

I can imagine getting my essay back from my English teacher, with red marks all over asking me to cite my sources, and a large "HOW? Expand on your ideas." scrawled after stating that the 2011 club will have more balance.

The one point worth mentioning that Tony brings up is the expected decline in talent that the Rays will endure this offseason. 

Tampa Bay figures to fall off a bit if Carl Crawford, Carlos Pena and Rafael Soriano all leave.

Unfortunately, that one sentence is all we get.  I submit to Tony (and his editor) that this single idea should've been the foundation for his article.  The title mentions injuries and starting pitchers, but his article barely does.  I think examining whether Tampa can withstand potentially losing a large chunk of their talent and still compete in the AL East is a fairly juicy topic. 

Perhaps Tony can chalk this one up to an injury, or poor starting pitching. 

Heyman: Sox "pessimistic" on Beltre

The latest tweet from SI's Jon Heyman (@SI_JonHeyman):

#redsox seem pessimistic on beltre. youkilis better be ready for 3B. have eyes on a-gone but could sign stopgap 1B (la roche, wiggy, glaus?)

This is in line with much speculation thus far in the offseason, but couple it with the exceedingly insane contracts being issued (eight figures for Jorge de la Rosa), and I can't say I disagree. A stop-gap 1B is certainly within Theo's purview.

This idea also goes hand in hand with speculation from Nick Cafardo -- that the money saved by not signing Victor Martinez could be applied to a trade (and subsequent extension) for Adrian Gonzalez. If you apply the savings from not signing Beltre to Gonzalez as well, it definitely eases ownership burden.

Of course, here is the kicker: San Diego's demands for Gonzalez aren't going to go down, so you can effectively consider some part of Victor and Beltre's dismissals as part of the cost for Gonzalez. Considering it's already going to take Kelly, Ellsbury, and more, this potential trade is starting to sound quite expensive.

Your Morning Dump...Where Delcarmen is cut loose again

Every morning, we compile the links of the day and dump them here... highlighting the big storyline. Because there's nothing quite as satisfying as a good morning dump.

Calling his acquisition "an interesting experminent [that] will end unfulfilled," the Denver Post's Troy Renck reports the Rockies will not tender a contract to ex-Red Sox reliever Manny Delcarmen by Thursday's deadline, thus making the Boston native a free agent.

Delcarmen was dealt to Colorado last August but struggled with control problems with Rockies, finishing 0-2 with a 6.48 ERA in 9 games. He had been 3-4 with a 4.53 ERA in 57 games for the Red Sox prior to the trade.

CSNNE | Report: Rockies plan to non-tender Delcarmen

I'm not willing to give into the "LET'S BRING JE-TAH TO THE SAWX" machine that the Globe is continuing to push, so let's look at what's happening to an old friend.

It's been a steep decline for Manny. Once thought to at least be a promising setup man, it now looks like he'll be part of the bullpen detritus that floats around the league. Of course, it's his own doing -- if his fastball would move even 0.1 millimeter to either side he'd be a lot stronger of a pitcher.

The Rockies were busy yesterday. They reached a three-year agreement with Jorge De La Rosa for $32-33 million and are reportedly close to a Todd Helton-like contract with SS Troy Tulowitzki: 10 years, nearly $170 million (only six of the years represent new money, but this is the reported total).

Colorado perpetuates the trend we've already seen around baseball -- young guys get snapped up early. Longoria, even the on-the-market Justin Upton -- these guys get offers very, very early on in their careers now. Tulo at least has proven himself, but he's only 26 and has his whole career ahead of him. Let's hope for the small-market Rockies' sake he's able to be healthier for the next ten years than he has been so far.

As far as the Red Sox are concerned, it has to make you wonder: Does this put more pressure on us to try to make a deal for Upton, or even for Adrian Gonzalez? Fewer of these franchise-changing players are now available than they once were -- especially pitchers, which may have factored into why Theo locked up the entire rotation forever and ever -- so we might be obligated to work the trade market to build our lineup into the future.

In somber, closing news, former Yankee infielder Gil McDougald died yesterday, and Indians' great Bob Feller is in the hospital with pneumonia (at age 92). Sad news for a couple of greats, and we wish Bob a speedy recovery.

Globe | Why not a short Jeter stop? | Fun to watch Jeter saga from afar | Herald | Yankees reportedly want to restart talks with Jeter | 

Gather Round. It's Arbitration Acceptance Day Eve!

Peter Abraham of the Globe's Extra Bases blog took a peek at some important days this week for the Sox.

Tuesday: This is the deadline for free agents offered arbitration to decide whether they will accept. For the Red Sox, this affects Adrian Beltre and Felipe Lopez. Both almost certainly will decline. If Beltre signs elsewhere, the Red Sox would receive two draft picks. For Lopez, a Type B free agent, the return would be a first-round "sandwich" pick.

Thursday: This is the non-tender date, which has been been moved up from recent years. This is the deadline for the Red Sox to tender a contract to any arbitration-eligible players. This effects three players: Jacoby Ellsbury, Hideki Okajima and Jonathan Papelbon

Beltre isn't gone yet, but no way he's accepting arbitration.  The Sox obtained Lopez solely so they could offer him arbitration, watch him decline, and then get a draft pick.  If they had any inkling of a thought that he'd accept, I don't think the offer would have been extended.  So if anyone was expecting Tuesday to rock your socks, you will be sorely disappointed.

Thursday.  Now there's a day that could get wild.  I seriously doubt we're going to find any surprises in the Ellsbury - Papelbon front.  Abraham predicts Paps will net around $11 million, a slight bump from last season.  He also wonders if the Sox should just walk away from him, or dump him off on the first bidder, but that's silly talk.

Okajima is where things get interesting.  I don't expect the Sox to tender him a contract.  Not unless they already have a trading partner lined up for his "services".  Hopefully Theo is going to do everything in his power to ensure Okajima is not on the Sox' roster heading into the 2011 season. 

Abraham sums his situation up as:

Yes, he is lefthanded. But opposing hitters had a .737 OPS against him last season, the highest of his career. Players from opposing teams have become accustomed to his funky delivery and now sit on what essentially a lousy fastball.

If the Red Sox bring Okajima back you have to wonder how serious they are about fixing their bullpen. It wouldn't be a shock if the Red Sox traded him before Thursday, perhaps to a NL team.

Simply put: Okajima is awful.  He served his purpose for the team, earned a few million dollars, made it to an All-Star game, and was a bit of a folk-hero for a short period of time. 

Thanks for the memories, Hideki, but please be sure to turn off the lights and lock the door on your way out.

Your Morning Dump...where Jayson Werth is Dwight Evans 2.0?

Every morning, we compile the links of the day and dump them here... highlighting the big storyline. Because there's nothing quite as satisfying as a good morning dump.

“I look at this guy, and I kind of see myself a little bit in the way he approaches the game, the way he struts, the way he walks, his mannerisms, the way he goes about his job,” Evans said by phone. “You can see he loves the game. He’s passionate about his position.

“I think, not having known that we were comparable in stats and all that, just watching this kid, seeing him play a little bit, mostly on TV and in interleague play, I just love everything he does. He, to me, is the best all-around right fielder in the game today. That’s my feeling. I felt that way before knowing that we were [compared by Boras].” ...

“Every time he catches the ball, every time he throws the ball, his fundamentals, his positioning, I can see what he’s thinking and doing,” he said of his work in the outfield, especially right field. “He has a good arm, accurate arm, hits his cutoff man. I’m impressed with him.

“I think he’s the best pure outfielder and all-around player on the market today,” Evans concluded, while making clear that he was not speaking for the organization. “I would go so far as to say I think, as a right fielder, he’s the best in the game right now.”

That said, the team that acquires Werth — whether the Sox or anyone else — would seemingly have to pay dearly for the player in both years and salary. Boras has gone on record this offseason as saying that Werth deserves a contract that compares more to the seven-year, $120 million that Matt Holliday signed with the Cardinals last winter than the four-year, $66 million deal that Jason Bay signed with the Mets.

WEEI- Earning his Werth? Dwight thinks so

I'm usually not one to go for a comparison like this, especially when one Scott Boras makes it. He's just an agent trying to get his some cash for his representative. Yet Dwight Evans, one of our best players in the past 30 years, sees it too. The words above are all praises from the man named Dewey. He sees the similarities and the stats prove it as well. Here are the stats from their careers between the ages 28-31 (courtesy of WEEI):

Jayson Werth: 543 games, .282/.380/.506/.885, 95 HR, 300 RBI, 60 SB, 131 OPS+
Dwight Evans: 544 games, .274/.380/.496/.876, 94 HR, 287 RBI, 12 SB, 135 OPS+

Evans has a slight boost in OPS+ while Werth is more aggressive on the bases but other than that, there isn't that much of a difference. Now the issue for Werth is longevity. Evans was still good at age 39. Could Werth do the same or will the injury bug come back and haunt him?  Would we be seeing him in a Sox uniform soon?  Time will only tell.

Your Morning Dump... the bright side to losing V-Mart

Every morning, we compile the links of the day and dump them here... highlighting the big storyline. Because there's nothing quite as satisfying as a good morning dump.

The list of quality players the Red Sox have selected with compensatory picks since Theo Epstein arrived in 2002 is impressive. Ellsbury and Lowrie were both the result of picks acquired when Cabrera signed with the Angels after the 2004 season.

Cabrera himself was acquired in part with a supplemental pick, outfielder Matt Murton, who went to the Cubs as part of the four-team trade that helped the Red Sox win a World Series. Murton had arrived in Boston a year earlier with a pick the team acquired after Cliff Floyd signed with the Mets.

Other big leaguers acquired since Epstein’s first draft in 2003 are Buchholz, Abe Alvarez, Craig Hansen, Michael Bowden, Daniel Bard and Aaron Bates. Buchholz is an All-Star. Bard has since become a mainstay of the bullpen. Hansen was used as a piece to acquire Jason Bay. Bowden has a chance to become an effective reliever.

...

Regardless of draft picks, letting Martinez walk doesn’t seem like such a horrible gamble. He missed almost 100 games in 2008 to injury and another 35 last year. Considering the wear and tear catchers absorb, he’s a prime candidate to break down - if not next year, then probably in 2012 or 2013. And has been written many times before, the day he stops catching is the day he comes an overpaid designated hitter/first baseman.

Herald - Losing V-Mart has its benefit

I know, I know - Theo drafts well.

But these draft picks will have ZERO impact on the 2011 season. John Tomase's explanation is a giant fat dose of - Wait til next year or the year after that.

On the flip side, Nick Carfardo seems convinced the Sox will make a splash:

The Red Sox could have extended themselves to match or outbid the Tigers on Victor Martinez, so there’s no doubt they are saving their shekels for a bigger splash. It’s likely to be San Diego first baseman Adrian Gonzalez, who would increase interest, put up huge numbers at Fenway Park, and make everyone forget they lost one of the great values on the free agent market in Martinez.

...

So here in November, the Sox are willing to roll the dice a bit and take the wrath of the fans. It’s all fine if the end result is signing a Carl Crawford or Jayson Werth and also acquiring Gonzalez or Justin Upton.

IMOP: Jayson Werth = JD Drew.

Why do I no longer trust this organization? Is it the questionable moves (Cameron, Scutaro, Lackey, VMart)? Is it because they spent $400 million on a soccer team instead of building a new park?

Your Morning Dump...Where Victor bids goodbye to Boston

Every morning, we compile the links of the day and dump them here... highlighting the big storyline. Because there's nothing quite as satisfying as a good morning dump.

Martinez was asked if he was disappointed that the Red Sox did not raise their offer to keep him in Boston.

“I really don’t want to talk about that,” Martinez said. “I really thank the Red Sox a lot. It was a great experience for me and my family to go out there and to that big city, and play the game. It was a great experience and we were ready to move on and I can’t thank them enough for giving me the opportunity to go out there and play.

“He [Red Sox manager Terry Francona] did send me text. It was special. They were great teammates. Everybody from the coaching staff, trainer’s staff, the guys in clubhouse, everybody was great for me and my family. I can’t thank them enough because it was a great time that I spent in Boston."

Globe | V-Mart on the Tigers: 'A great chance to put a ring on my finger'

Victor's saying all the right things, but there are two clear takeaways from this batch of quotes collected by Steve Silva.

1. He's hurt by Boston not matching the offer. He was smart enough not to comment on it, but "I really don't want to talk about that", followed by a paragraph-long defense of why he deserves four years, gets the point across.

2. He's either delusional, or lying, about his fondness for Detroit. The Tigers do not present "a great chance to put a ring on his finger", they represent the one team that would pay him what he wanted over his desired period. Which is fine. I don't know why people won't admit this.

The Tigers' offseason acquisitions/extensions: Victor, who is good, Brandon Inge, who is not, Jhonny Peralta, who is not, and Joaquin Benoit, who is about a third as good as what they're paying him. Sure, this is a team committed to -- what, signing players? This does not mean they present good odds at winning, especially when you factor in the reliable Twins and ever-changing White Sox in the same division.

Adios, Victor. We're glad you enjoyed your time here.

Globe | Tigers make deal official | CSNNE | No catch to Martinez' signing with Tigers | WEEI | Cabrera helped recruit Victor Martinez to Tigers

Your Morning Dump... Where the Upton Debate Rages On

Every morning, we compile the links of the day and dump them here... highlighting the big storyline. Because there's nothing quite as satisfying as a good morning dump.

The same way he wined and dined Curt Schilling seven years ago, [Theo] needs to sweet talk Towers until he agrees to send Justin Upton to the Red Sox. Pass the stuffing and Jacoby Ellsbury to Towers. Ask him if he wants dark meat, white meat or Daniel Bard. Whatever it takes before the Diamondbacks come to their senses about dealing Upton.

Giving up the 25-year-old Bard is tough. But there is no proof that he'll be a 40-save guy - he has four career saves -- and even the best closers can have shorter-than-expected shelf-lives (see: Papelbon, Jonathan).

I'm a lot more confident that this organization can find another hard-throwing, righthanded reliever who can close in the next three to four seasons than I am that they can somehow produce or procure at a lower cost a player of Upton's immense potential. The last one they had was Hanley Ramirez, and Epstein has been trying to get him back virtually from the day the Theo-less Red Sox sent him away.

Globe - Time to up the ante with Upton

I feel like I've been writing the same group of sentences for the past 2 weeks, so pardon me while I do it again; if only in a slightly-different fashion and order.

Gasper's piece here makes sense on a grand-scheme level, where baseball is played in SportsCenter highlights and hot topics on PTI.  Unfortunately, the game, and roster building, is much more in-depth than that.

A couple things he writes are a bit head-scratching.  He seems to have closed the book on Papelbon entirely, which I think is a bit foolish and short-sighted.  Sure, he wasn't dominating night-in-night-out last season, but I submit that his "shelf-life" is far from up.  And for a Red Sox roster whose biggest hole is in the bullpen, to dump one of your only lights-out relievers (Bard) because of his theoretical shelf-life seems a tad silly.

He also writes that making any trade for Gonzalez now wouldn't be wise, as the Sox will have to pony up the prospects to obtain him, while sending a gigantic contract his way.  I've written this before, and while several people have disagreed with me, if Gonzalez is the Sox guy, and they've made no secret that he is, why would they risk standing pat, while someone else swoops in and trades for him? 

Yes, there will be a cost that may not be there at the end of the season, but that cost is far lower than any price tage for Upton, and most importantly, the Sox get to keep Bard.

Rest of the links:

Globe - Martinez exit leaves Red Sox fans feeling a draft | Herald - Can’t prevent ’11 Red Sox from scoring | WEEI - Report: Red Sox show interest in catcher Rod Barajas | Sox claim OF Jordan Parraz on waivers | NESN -Clay Buchholz Has the Potential to Build Into Even Stronger Pitcher for Red Sox

Your Morning Dump... Where Losing Victor Stings

Every morning, we compile the links of the day and dump them here... highlighting the big storyline. Because there's nothing quite as satisfying as a good morning dump.

The hot stove season is young, but losing Martinez at the jump is a public relations nightmare for a ball club that’s suddenly fighting for market share and TV ratings. The local landscape is peppered with popular, playoff-bound teams. The Sox did not make it into the tournament this year and the bland ball club is scuffling to generate positive buzz. Subtracting Martinez a month after ponying up $476 million for a soccer team com pounds the fallout.

Losing Martinez makes little sense. The Sox are willing to pay David Ortiz (who can’t hit lefties) more than $12.5 million to do a job that pays $6 million tops. They’re going to wind up paying Jonathan Papelbon almost $12 million. J.D. Drew is still cashing checks for $14 million. And Martinez — your switch-hitter who crushes the Yankees and Rays — is not worth $12.5 million per year for the next four years?

Globe - This one should leave fans hungry for answers

I don't often agree with Dan Shaughnessy, but he's pretty much nailed it here.

I'm no baseball economist, but in this landscape, I anticipated someone giving Martinez a decently larger contract than the one he's signed with Detroit.  An extra year or two with a few more million thrown in.  The $50 million over 4 years that he did obtain is a pretty fair deal. 

And when you look at some of the other contracts we're currently holding, as CHB pointed out, $12.5 million per year for Martinez seems almost like a steal at this point.

It's tough to swallow, as it leaves a gigantic hole in our roster (and I don't think anyone outside of Yawkey Way is convinced that Salty is ready to be the full-time backstop), especially over $8 million, but it is what it is.

Perhaps in four years we'll look back on this decision and say, "That Theo Epstein sure knows what he's doing."  But today, the Sox front office has definitely taken a hit.

Oh, and the Sox did not offer Varitek arbitration last night.  So at least we have that going for us...

Rest of the links:

Globe - Salty: 'I need to run with this' | Francona: Red Sox will find a way without Martinez in 2011 | Steinbrenner: Yanks made `guys very, very rich' | Herald - Victor Martinez gone, Jason Varitek denied arbitration | WEEI - Red Sox prepare for life without Victor Martinez | NESN -Adrian Beltre Decision 'Still Way Up in the Air,' Things Need to Shake Out Before Move Gets Made (Video)