The Marco Scutaro option being picked up marks not only Ben Cherington's first move as Sox GM, but also the first move of the 2011 offseason. Everybody has a different opinion as to what moves will follow, and the Ted's Army offices are no different.
I asked the other writers (Ben, Aaron, and head honcho Nick [RAS]) for who they think will comprise the Red Sox starting lineup on opening day 2012. We included opening day starter and closer, since many Sox fans are calling for a shakeup to the rotation, and the closer situation is possibly the most important decision Cherington has to make.
On the next page, the Ted's Army opening day lineup predictions, starting with me.
Scott:
1. CF Jacoby Ellsbury
2. LF Carl Crawford
3. 2B Dustin Pedroia
4. 1B Adrian Gonzalez
5. DH Kevin Youkilis
6. RF Josh Reddick
7. 3B Will Middlebrooks
8. C Jarrod Saltalamacchia
9. SS Marco Scutaro
SP Jon Lester
CP Jonathan Papelbon
My prediction is probably the most surprising, but I did it based on Cherington's comments about being smarter in free agency. The whole "walking the walk, not just talking the talk" about organizational philosophy is also sticking with me. So I'm predicting he stays out of free agency completely, other than back-end starting pitching and the usual bullpen retooling. I also think he'll go the extra mile to bring back Papelbon, but I think somebody else will overbid for Papi, allowing us to slide Youkilis over the DH and hopefully keep him healthier, making room for Middlebrooks.
I also think there will be an effort to make Carl Crawford comfortable, and thus I have him in the 2-hole. I also think there will be less of a worry about moving Dustin Pedroia and offending him with Francona gone.
Nick:
1. CF Jacoby Ellsbury
2. 2B Dustin Pedroia
3. 1B Adrian Gonzalez
4. DH David Ortiz
5. RF Grady Sizemore
6. 3B Aramis Ramirez
7. LF Carl Crawford
8. C Jarrod Saltalamacchia
9. SS Marco Scutaro
SP Jon Lester
CP Jonathan Papelbon
Nick sees Cherington basically acting in the exact opposite manner. He sees Youk as the odd man out, and the Sox not only bringing back Pap and Papi, but going out into the market and grabbing Aramis Ramirez (who declined his player option with the Cubs) and Grady Sizemore (as a reclamation project). Sizemore is a typical Sox move under this ownership -- a short-term gamble on a player who has shown skills but can't stay healthy.
Aaron:
1. CF Jacoby Ellsbury
2. 2B Dustin Pedroia
3. 1B Adrian Gonzalez
4. DH David Ortiz
5. RF Carlos Beltran
6. LF Carl Crawford
7. 3B Jed Lowrie
8. C Jarrod Saltalamacchia
9. SS Marco Scutaro
SP Jon Lester
CP Jonathan Papelbon
Aaron is somewhere in between Nick and me. He see Youk gone, Papi back, Pap back, and one free agent splurge (Beltran). He also apparently thinks Jed Lowrie will be healthy, which makes me LOL to myself.
Ben:
1. CF Jacoby Ellsbury
2. 2B Dustin Pedroia
3. 1B Adrian Gonzalez
4. 3B Aramis Ramirez
5. DH David Ortiz
6. RF Corey Hart
7. LF Carl Crawford
8. C Jarrod Saltalamacchia
9. SS Marco Scutaro
SP Josh Beckett
CP Jonathan Papelbon
Some bonus comments from Ben:
Let me change my last name to Cherington and make a move: Youk and Kalish for Corey Hart. The Brewers know they're not re-signing Prince. They won't get in the Pujols sweepstakes either. So they get someone in Youk who is stellar defensively at first and a solid bat. Plus they have someone who can play in right immediately in Kalish. This opens up third so they can make the splash at Aramis Ramirez, who would be great at Fenway. If this trade doesn't happen (which in all likelihood it won't, sadly), Michael Cuddyer looks to be the man fit for the job.
I also see Roy Oswalt coming into this rotation and he'll either be really good or God awful.
High price to pay for Hart, but that's what Ben wants. The other unique thing about Ben's prediction is Josh Beckett being the starter. That would certainly be an organizational vote of confidence in Josh.
A few last notes: We were unanimous about Jonathan Papelbon returning. I'm pretty surprised by that. We also were unanimous in Salty being the catcher, and in Jacoby not being a sell-high trade candidate (as some have speculated. I was the only one of us to go the youth route, and also the only one who thought Ortiz would not be back.
I'm also surprised that nobody went with the bold route of saying we'd bring in CC Sabathia, which can't be counted out. I wouldn't call it likely, but it would certainly be a way for fans to think more favorably of the Sox in an offseason where we've all been critical.
