Ted's Army: The Voice of Red Sox fans

Your Morning Dump... Where Ellsbury's price tag gets smaller

Every morning, we compile the links of the day and dump them here... highlighting the big storyline. Because there's nothing quite as satisfying as a good morning dump.

Entering last night’s series opener here against the Twins, in which he stole a base and drove in the tying run with an infield single, Ellsbury was batting .249 — including a 6-for-46 funk over his last 11 games — with a .314 on-base percentage and only one home run.

And although Ellsbury was leading the AL with 13 stolen bases and 199 plate appearances, he also had produced 141 outs, most in the majors.

With numbers like that, a $100 million contract isn’t likely to follow.

“It’s just a matter of him staying focused,” said Victorino, who admittedly was unable to do so last season before signing a three-year, $39 million deal with the Red Sox. “And he’s really not doing that bad. To be where he’s at right now, he hasn’t put himself in a hole. His power numbers aren’t there, but I’ve seen it where he can be the kind of guy who hits 10 (homers) a month.

Ellsbury never would admit to being distracted by his impending free agency, and for what it’s worth, Victorino said he hasn’t sensed Ellsbury putting too much pressure on himself. Regardless, it isn’t the start the Red Sox expected for Ellsbury.

Herald - Jacoby Ellsbury struggling

Let me preface this by saying that baseball general managers are insane, but I think it's time to stop thinking of Ellsbury as a $100 million man.

That's not to say that Ellsbury isn't a very good-to-great player.  He is.  I just think that the 2011 season was his ceiling, not his average.  Those are the numbers he can put up when everything is coming up Jacoby.  If you're investing piles of cash in his performance thinking he'll produce at that level consistently, you will be extremely disappointed.

I also don't mean to say that where he's performing now should be expected.  He's on pace to have his worst season, statistically, by far.  He has not been playing great baseball, but there's no reason to think he won't turn it around.  Unless he lets the pressure of his impending free agency get to him, he should turn it around sometime soon. 

It will be interesting to see what this does to Jacoby's trade value, or the Sox willingness to ship him out.  If he's going to put up these types of numbers this season, there's no real reason to leave him in the lineup and not call JBJ back up later in the summer.  If his price tag is perceived to have lessened around the league, interest in his services will pickup in places other than New York or Chicago.  It could get interesting.

Of course, as I mentioned at the top of this post, baseball GMs are insane.  They were never the type to let a .660 OPS get in the way of $100 million contracts.

Rest of the links:

Herald - Concussion symptoms still dogging Ross | Dustin Pedroia drives Red Sox past Twins | Globe -Red Sox outlast Twins, 3-2, in 10 innings | Miller bonked on the head but keeps chucking | WEEI - Could this be the smartest Red Sox team since '07? | CSNNE - Wilson picks up first win on just two pitches | Buchholz puts Sox in position to pick up a win

Your Morning Dump...where national expectations are low

Every morning, we compile the links of the day and dump them here... highlighting the big storyline. Because there's nothing quite as satisfying as a good morning dump.

The Red Sox didn't get a lot of love from the 43 ESPN "experts" who made their picks for division winners and wild-card teams for the 2013 season, but they weren't shut out either.

Four folks list the Red Sox as a wild-card team -- Karl Ravech of "Baseball Tonight", ESPN.com's David Schoenfield, AJ Mass of ESPN Fantasy, and our own eternal optimist Joe McDonald. 

The Rays and Blue Jays garnered the most votes, but all five teams received some attention as a possible playoff team. The Rays were picked as the division winner 19 times and a wild-card team 12 times, while the Jays got 19 votes as division champ and 11 votes as a wild card. 

The Orioles were picked as the division winner twice and got four votes as a wild card, and the Yankees got one vote to win the AL East and five votes to be a wild card. 

ESPNBoston | ESPN predicts the 2013 season 

What a difference a year (or two) makes. Heading into 2011, when the Red Sox famously had the greatest roster ever assembled, all of ESPN's then-45 experts had the Red Sox winning the AL East. A whopping 42 had them winning the AL. Last year expectations dropped so that just a third of the experts had them making the playoffs.

And now here we are in 2013. The roster had a major facelift. Out goes the incompetent manager, in comes a guy we certainly hope isn't incompetent (but is as hated in Toronto as Bobby V is in Boston). The injured guys from last year -- sans David Ortiz, which is admittedly a big sans -- are ready to go. But nonetheless, ESPN's experts, who clearly just make their decisions based on who makes the splashiest offseason moves, are all psyched about the Blue Jays, who took most of the best players from a terrible team and all of a sudden are World Series favorites.

I don't remember a season where the AL East was this unpredictable. There are reasonable arguments to be made for everyone. The Red Sox could catch a break on the injury bug, hang around until the deadline, acquire another piece or two and make a run. The Blue Jays really could harness all that talent, and Josh Johnson could stay healthy and Mark Buehrle could handle the AL East. The Yankees could ride out their injuries and then play .700 ball once everyone returns. The Rays could continue to live on pitching and defensive shifts and find their way. The Orioles could manage to win a bunch of close games thanks to their bullpen and managing, somehow overcoming their atrocious starting pitching.

And while ESPN is down on the Sox, the Ted's Army staff is surprisingly positive, with four of us predicting playoffs (and as the lone dissenter, I said they'd be in contention).

That's the fun of opening day, we all have a chance. We can stop fretting about Jacoby Ellsbury's future contract, Jackie Bradley's 2019 status, John Lackey's offseason workout habits, or whether the team is now as loose and determined as the Red Sox marketing wants us to think. We can focus on whether Jon Lester can shut down the Yankees.

Now if only they would have it be a night game so we could actually watch.

On page 2, an argument for Jon Lester being the most important player on the team.

Your Morning Dump... Where Boras chimes in on the outfield situation

Every morning, we compile the links of the day and dump them here... highlighting the big storyline. Because there's nothing quite as satisfying as a good morning dump.

“We definitely see those two players co-existing on the Red Sox,” said Boras yesterday. “They are quite a force for the team.”

There is no question in Boras’ mind about which of the two should be in center field.

“Both these guys are so athletic but obviously Jacoby is the one with experience in this league and that’s very important at that position,” said Boras. “I don’t think Jackie minds playing in the major leagues if that means flanking Jacoby Ellsbury. I think he would be very happy if that came to pass.”

On keeping Bradley in the minors so the Sox gain another year of control:

“Clubs put themselves in a position to make decisions based on economic concerns instead of performance,” said Boras. “Every boundary becomes the focus of strategic decisions. Every team does it. I don’t think it’s necessarily in the best interests of baseball. When this does happen, fans usually become aware that the team is better with the player on it and economic concerns are not always the most important."

Herald - Scott Boras loves his Red Sox

If you were wondering what Scott Boras thought about the Red Sox outfield situation (you weren't), well, now you know.

Boras is who he is, and he's unapologetic about it.  Everything the man says and does is done with the sole purpose of lining his pockets with more money.  So any time he says or does anything it easy to dismiss it because it's always said or done in self-interest.

But he does have a point about the Jackie Bradley situation.  Having control over players is one of those "interesting and unique" parts of baseball that you don't find anywhere else.  It's also "stupid and dumb".  I know a lot of people disagree with me, but I tend to see things in black and white.  In my world, you draft a player and you have them under your control for X number of years.  Then it's decision time.  If you kept him in the minors that whole time, or started him in the majors in year 1, doesn't matter. 

But that's not how it works, and it's not something that is probably going to be changing in my lifetime.  Usually teams navigate these rules successfully.  But sometimes you have a Jackie Bradley Jr. on your hands, and you have no choice but to let the kid play.  Even if it's going to cost you millions of dollars in the end.

Sometimes it's worth it.

Rest of the links:

Herald - Stick a sock in it, Curt | Last roster spot in flux | Globe - Franklin Morales will get stretched out by Red Sox | Bradley waits on number | WEEI - Red Sox COO Sam Kennedy on Salk & Holley: Discounts could extend past April | CSNNE - Red Sox will be better . . . but by how much? | Felger & Mazz: 2013 Red Sox predictions

Ted's Army Season Preview Part Two

Baseball is finally here. While Spring Training can hold people off, many are fiending for the season to start. We're right there with you. We look forward to the brutal grind of the baseball season. The braintrust behind Ted's Army came together and put out expectations for our beloved Boston Red Sox and how they would fair in the 2013 campaign. Without further ado... I give you part two of the Ted's Army season preview.

Who’s ready to have a break-out season?

Tucker Silva: It has to be Jackie Bradley Jr. Hyped for a few years now, Bradley Jr. has been raking at Spring Training and is in serious consideration to make the team out of the gate. No fluke here folks, this kid is the real deal and the future of the soon-to-be "Post-Ellsbury" era.

Nick Karalis: Jon Lester. Some could argue he has had his break-out season, but the change in the clubhouse and coaching staff could make for a Cy Young season for Lester. I thought it would be last season, but I feel better about it this year. 

Aaron Gettings: This question would have been much more fun to answer had Cherington taken my advice and started a bunch of kids.  Instead, the roster is filled with mostly established players.  But I'm going to put my money on Jarrod Saltalamacchia.  It's a make-or-break season for him.  He either shines and secures a nice payday and job (whether that's in Boston or elsewhere), or he continues to be ho-hum.  I think he'll make the most of his contract-year.

Ben Fountain: I'll go with Will Middlebrooks. He had his coming out party last year and made Red Sox fans realize that Youk was no longer had what we needed. His wrist injury was the cherry on top of the shit sundae that was the 2012 season. I'm excited to see what he'll do for a full 162 game stretch. Wake & Rake will be in full force this season.

Scott Priest:  I don't think anyone on the team really qualifies for a breakout, at least the way I think of it. I'm not high on Middlebrooks or Doubront this year, and it seems odd to answer this with a veteran. Since there's nowhere else for me to put this, I will say I think John Lackey will be the best we've seen him in a Red Sox uniform, and will be a useful player.

Your Morning Dump...where Bradley sure looks ready

Every morning, we compile the links of the day and dump them here... highlighting the big storyline. Because there's nothing quite as satisfying as a good morning dump.

Bradley, whose play has been the talk of spring training, was in the lineup and in left field, starting at that position for the first time this spring. Noting the big crowd expected on the road and the presence of Cliff Lee on the mound, manager John Farrell said the day would serve as a good test for Bradley.
      
"This,'' said Farrell, "is probably the best environment we could put him in -- on the road, away from our ballpark, going up against a  very good pitcher. This will be a good day for him.''
      
Sure enough, it was. Bradley launched a three-run homer to left off Lee in the second inning, then added a sacrifice fly in the next inning.
      
The afternoon added to Bradley's legend. The homer was Bradley's 22nd hit this spring, a number topped by only three American League players going into games Sunday.
      
"He did a very good job,'' said Farrell of the test against Lee. "You can say all you want about the conditions [a strong wind was blowing out and helped on the homer], but he put a good swing on the ball. I thought he picked a good pitch on the next at-bat for the sac fly.''

CSNNE | HR boosts Bradley Jr.'s bid to make team

I have to admit, I'm very turned around on this whole "Should JBJ start the year in the majors" question, but only for one reason: The question of how it affects his service time hasn't really drawn a consensus. Rob Bradford did a piece last week saying he had changed his mind and that he now thinks Bradley should start in the majors, because they can send him back down when Ortiz comes back and preserve the service time that way. The important thing is he gets 11 days in the minors.

Sean McAdam echoed that sentiment today in a video on CSNNE (see the links below), so I'm inclined to believe that's true.

If so, I agree with Bradford -- keep JBJ with the big club, give him a few weeks in left (or cycling through the outfield) while Papi recuperates, and then send him down to Pawtucket.

If not, I'm with every other smart person I read (like Keith Law, who I trust to be an expert on anything minors-related) and say keep him in Pawtucket to start the year.

The important thing is not that JBJ is playing well -- much of it has been against minor-league players in no-pressure games, after all -- or that the club should be trying to put its best product on the field. The important thing is service time. Baseball's rules are what they are. It's well known -- Theo Epstein tries to remind people every chance he gets -- that free agency yields the least efficient results. You almost always overpay -- handsomely -- for talent on the decline. That's just its nature.

So the longer you can hold onto your own players through their initial deals and arbitration, you have to do it. Don't be confused by people saying the Red Sox owe it to the fans to put an exciting product on the field, or that Bradley is ready. He sure looks it. But that's not the issue. The issue is service time, and delaying Bradley's free agency is the most important thing facing the team right now. 

On page 2, the latest on Jacoby Ellsbury's latest injury.

Your Late Morning Dump...Where Ellsbury has yet to attempt a steal

Every morning, we compile the links of the day and dump them here... highlighting the big storyline. Because there's nothing quite as satisfying as a good morning dump.

Jacoby Ellsbury has played in 15 spring training games for the Red Sox and has yet to attempt a stolen base.

Manager John Farrell was asked Saturday if there was a reason for that. Nine seconds passed before he gave an answer.

“No,” said Farrell. “There’s not a particular reason, no.”

Is that unusual?

This time Farrell paused 15 seconds.

“I don’t know that it’s unusual,” he said. “I know that there’s been times that we’ve talked about certain things.”

Ellsbury has no answer for it, either.

“I wish I had one for you. I just haven’t gone,” he said after Saturday’s 5-3 loss to the Pirates at JetBlue Park. “There’s really no reason for it. I still have my speed. It’ll be there when I need it.”

Globe: Red Sox' Jacoby Ellsbury biding his time with steals

If I didn't read this article this morning, the thought or concern of Ellsbury not attempting a steal would have never entered my mind. Honestly, I don't really care that he has not shown his speed this spring, because we all know it is there.

Jacoby's luck has been less than great over the past 4 years, and the fear of another injury while sliding into second is probably scaring the shit out of him. Get the mechanics back in line, get the comfort level back to where it should be, then start stealing bases.

A lack of steal should start being a concern if we are 3 months into the season and the team is struggling, not in March.

The rest of the links:

Herald: Opening Day preview? Jackie Bradley Jr. starting left field, batting 7th | Borges: Clay finally feels good | Strong-arming 'em | Roto rater | Ellsbury reflects on Bradley's experience | WEEI: Jackie Bradley Jr. on down on the farm: 'Going to try to push the envelope | Jackie Bradley Jr. to start in LF on Sunday | CSNNE: Saltalamacchia making most of opportunities vs. lefties | Red Sox notes: Drew takes batting practice |

Jonny Gomes and David Ross have a fun afternoon ahead of them

Via Jacoby Ellsbury's Twitter comes this great picture that really doesn't need much explanation.

That's Red Sox newcomers Jonny Gomes and David Ross decked out to do some huntin' and killin'. No word as to whether Gomes is a dead-pull shooter.

In other news, Peter Abraham has the full pitching plans for the next week.

Your Morning Dump... Where arbitration is boring and stupid

This image from duhaime.org is way cooler than any of these one-year deals

Every morning, we compile the links of the day and dump them here... highlighting the big storyline. Because there's nothing quite as satisfying as a good morning dump.

The Red Sox reached agreements with all but one of their arbitration eligible players today.

On the heels of agreements with catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia ($4.5 million on Thursday) and Jacoby Ellsbury ($9 million earlier today), the Sox also avoided arbitration with the following:

•  
  • Right-hander Alfredo Aceves ($2.65 million)
  • Right-hander Andrew Bailey ($4.1 million)
  • Right-hander Daniel Bard ($1.8625 million)
  • Right-hander Joel Hanrahan ($7.04 million)
  • Left-hander Andrew Miller ($1.475 million)
  • Left-hander Franklin Morales ($1.4875 million)

That leaves only left-hander Craig Breslow, who filed at $2.375 million, while the Sox countered at $2.325 million. That's only a difference of $50,000, which means the Sox are all but guaranteed of maintaining their streak of avoiding arbitration hearings. Their last hearing came in 2002, when they beat Rolando Arrojo.

Herald - Red Sox avoid arbitration with everyone except Breslow

I was never one to get myself worked up over arbitration.  I know that some people are highly interested it in, but not me.  It lets baseball grab a headline or two in the middle of winter, but that's about it.  The whole 'drama' around it is absurd. 

Will the Red Sox have to pay Craig Breslow the extra $50,000 he's asking?  Can they sort it out before someone else makes the decision for them?  Stay tuned!

*Yawn*

And the Sox streak of avoiding arbitration is just as silly.  I could rattle off five made-up reasons why it matters, but that would all be nonsense.  The Sox and their players are able to come to mutually-agreeable terms on their own, without someone forcing them to.  That's all it means.  No reason to hold a parade.

Arbitration is one of those things that makes baseball 'unique' in the American sports landscape.  It's also stupid.  But with the way baseball is set-up, there's probably not a better way.  At least not for players whose talent and production elevate quickly. Slightly imperfect, but very fair.

Next year, around the same time, we'll do this same dance.  We'll applaud the Red Sox for avoiding hearings.  We'll be taken aback that player X got a million dollar raise.  And then we'll go back to our regular lives, because those guys who are arbitration-eligible were always going to be playing for the Sox the following year anyway.  Regardless of any of this.

Rest of the links:

Herald - Jacoby Ellsbury takes the $9M | ESPN - Red Sox avoid arbitration drama | WEEI - Shane Victorino discusses Manti Te’o situation, playing in World Baseball Classic | CSNNE - Full rotation makes Sox a 'tough sell' to veterans | Sox nearly done with arbitration to-do list | Globe - Red Sox sign Jacoby Ellsbury, six others to one-year deals

Red Sox, Jacoby Ellsbury avoid arbitration with $9 million deal

The Red Sox and Jacoby Ellsbury have agreed to terms on a one-year contract, reports...Jacoby Ellsbury. Peter Abraham since tweeted that the deal was for $9 million.

I find the number a little surprising. Ells got $8.05 million last year after his near-MVP performance in 2011. And sure, players don't often go backwards in arbitration, but it's surprising to see the number jump up another million when he played half the year, and when he played he was pretty average. A .313 OBP for a leadoff hitter ain't great; four homers speak for themselves.

I know the Red Sox prefer not to go to arbitration, but were I in Ben Cherington's shoes, I might have done it. If you're an arbitrator, what track record are you more convinced by, the one massive breakout year, or the two injury-riddled ones surrounding it? It makes me think that the Red Sox consider an extra million or two worth spending to A) avoid dealing with the hassle of arbitration and B) keep the lines of communication strong with Scott Boras. Maybe they'll be in on the Ellsbury sweepstakes next year after all?

Your Afternoon Dump... Where the Phillies turned down Ellsbury

Every morning, we compile the links of the day and dump them here... highlighting the big storyline. Because there's nothing quite as satisfying as a good morning dump.

According to CSNPhilly.com, the Phillies turned down a Red Sox proposal in which the Sox would have sent Jacoby Ellsbury to Philadelphia in exchange for left-hander Cliff Lee. 

"According to multiple sources, the Red Sox approached the Phillies about a Jacoby Ellsbury for Cliff Lee deal and were told that Lee was not available," the report said. "The Phils won’t break up their Lee-Cole Hamels-Roy Halladay trio. (Check back in July if the team is not in contention.)"

The Phillies needed a center fielder, but instead of trading for Ellsbury or pursuing any of the prominent free agent center fielders, the team traded for Twins center fielder Ben Revere. Red Sox team sources have said that the team would consider a trade of Ellsbury (in the aftermath of signing Shane Victorino) only if it meant a considerable upgrade to the team's rotation.

WEEI - Report: Phils said no on Ellsbury-for-Lee

Sorry for the extremely late dump.  Today is not my day...

If you needed confirmation that the Red Sox intending on trading Ellsbury, here you go.

I actually like this trade for both clubs.  Boston gets themselves another reliable starter to combat the bats in the AL East.  Phillies get the major, and sorely needed, upgrade in their outfield.  Win-Win.

But I don't blame Philadelphia for saying 'no thanks'; and I doubt their desire to keep their rotation intact was the deciding factor.  I think it all comes down to Jacoby's contract situation.  No one is going to ship of a quality starter (or any player of value, really) for a potential one-year rental. 

Sure, Cherington will most likely be able to find a team willing to dump off a bloated contract, or maybe obtain another player whose contract is about to expire, but nobody willing to part with somebody like Cliff Lee.  I do like the Sox being aggressive and trying to move Ellsbury.  That's the right call.  And I'm fully willing to accept a trade where Boston only gets 50 cents on the dollar.  But we have several months to go before Spring Training.

A lot can change between now and then, or even in-season.  A team, like Philadelphia, with an abundance of starting pitching, may realize they're an Ellsbury away from a World Series. Or Jacoby could just commit to someone long-term.  Wouldn't that be nice.

Rest of the links:

 Herald - Pedro Martinez ‘open’ to a Sox job | David Ortiz glad to be free of Bobby Valentine | Globe - Pedro Martinez: I pitched clean | David Ortiz not yet fully healthy | WEEI - Terry Francona to receive Boston BBWAA’s Emil Fuchs Award | CSNNE - Report: Dempster turns down Sox offer | Damon wanted to return to Red Sox