Ted's Army: The Voice of Red Sox fans

Your Morning Dump...where Cherington is keeping Ellsbury here

Every morning, we compile the links of the day and dump them here... highlighting the big storyline. Because there's nothing quite as satisfying as a good morning dump.

Red Sox GM Ben Cherington downplayed suggestions that, with free agent outfielder Shane Victorino in the process of finalizing his contract, the team now intends to deal Jacoby Ellsbury. While Cherington restated that the team listens when approached by teams about any of its players, he said that he expects the 29-year-old to be a key contributor to the club in 2013.

"You answer the phone and take the calls and listen to ideas. Our expectation is Jacoby will be here and be our center fielder," said Cherington. "[Dealing Ellsbury] is not our intent. We're expecting Jacoby to have a really good year in 2013 and be a huge part of what we're doing."

As for the level of interest in his center fielder, Cherington said, "I wouldn’t comment specifically. We have a number of guys who are really valued by other teams, so weve been asked about a number of guys. We’re not looking to move guys off our roster. We’re looking to add talent to the roster, not move guys off at this point. We’ll see. You’ve got to listen and learn and have the conversation. We wouldn’t be doing our jobs if we didn’t at least have the dialogue and gather the information and see what other teams are interested in doing."

WEEI: Cherington: Ellsbury a huge part of 2013

WELP.... So much for that. After signing Shane Victorino, the big assumption was that Jacoby Ellsbury suddenly becomes much easier to trade, especially for some starting pitching. 

We all know what happens when we assume. 

Corny jokes aside, Cherington believes that when healthy, Jacoby Ellsbury is at or pretty close to the player that shocked us all in 2011. He's also one of the few that is being this optimistic about him. I'm not going to get into the "freak accident" theory that Boras laid out, the fact is that Ellsbury continues to get hurt and when he does come back, he doesn't emerge as the solid player that everyone is hoping for.

It's a little bit surprising that Ellsbury isn't being dangled out there, especially in a package for a front line starter. I don't think anyone will be disappointed to see that happen, especially with the way everyone in Boston sports radio were talking yesterday. As soon as they heard about the Ellsbury for Cliff Lee rumor that Scott started, everyone was arguing about who would drive Ellsbury to Philly.  (Oh, wait we're giving the credit to Schilling? Screw that.)

His value may not be the same as it was last season, but if you add a quality prospect (that doesn't include Jackie Bradley or the X Man), a team like Philly would take that risk because they are so desperate to fill their outfield after trading it away last season. Now we just need to see if either GM would actually sit down and discuss it.

Rest of the Links: Globe: No intent on trading Ellsbury | Arms hold the key for the Sox | Herald: Ellsbury trade the right move | Hamilton on the radar | Good times for Francona | CSNNE: The right approach | Sox unsure of using rule 5 pick | Ellsbury for Lee seems way too optimistic | WEEI: Now what do they do?  | Cherington met with Hamilton 

Red Sox hearing offers on Ellsbury, Lester

We already covered the inevitable rumor that the Red Sox will listen to offers for center fielder and impending free agent Jacoby Ellsbury. This morning a number of reporters from Winter Meetings are chiming in that the Sox are fielding offers for both Ellsbury and staff ace Jon Lester.

Buster Olney of ESPN says on Twitter they're listening but are not "motivated" and teams would have to "overpay" to acquire either player.

Nick Cafardo of the Globe, however, tweets that Ellsbury will be difficult to deal because he most likely would not sign long-term anywhere.

Jon Heyman of CBS, meanwhile, characterizes the Red Sox as "very active," including offers for high-profile players.

I am not a reporter, but I would say a move of either player is unlikely. I think we're more likely to see the Red Sox try to sign Lester to an extension than trade him; I think they think Farrell will be able to fix him. And Ellsbury? Like Cafardo said, the lack of possibility of an extension makes his value nebulous, and probably not in a good way. We're likely looking at a prospect or two, and probably nothing elite, although Buster Olney (Insider) suggested this morning that several very good prospects, including Randall Delgado and Julio Teheran from Atlanta, could be considered.

I know what you're thinking -- but if they trade Ellsbury or Lester, how will they fill their spots on the major league roster? Not to worry: Cafardo says the team has checked in on the immortal Carl Pavano.

Your Morning Dump...where the Sox will listen on Ellsbury

Every morning, we compile the links of the day and dump them here... highlighting the big storyline. Because there's nothing quite as satisfying as a good morning dump.

The Red Sox are not necessarily finished constructing their outfield, according to major league sources. General manager Ben Cherington is considering the idea of trading center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury for a starting pitcher, playing Victorino in center field, and signing another player for right field.

Cody Ross and Nick Swisher are among the free agent right fielders still available. The Sox, those same sources said, are telling free agents to remain available.

Cherington did not discount the idea of the Red Sox signing another outfielder.

“Wouldn’t rule out adding two outfielders to the mix,” he said at the Winter Meetings. “We’ll see what’s attainable.”

When asked specifically about Ross, Cherington did not cross off the incumbent right fielder as a possibility for next season.

Globe | Red Sox add Shane Victorino; now does Jacoby Ellsbury go?

Ah, yes, one of my favorite subjects. Trading Jacoby Ellsbury.

I've written on this in the past and have always been to some degree in favor of trading our centerfielder. I was a big proponent of it last offseason, when his value was, I believe, far too high. I don't think we'll ever see an MVP-caliber season from him again, but of course I could be wrong. I was less excited about the idea the last time I wrote about it, simply because of the lousy season he had from both a performance and health perspective.

Nothing has changed since last month in terms of our options beyond Ben Cherington adding veterans on short-term deals in the outfield. The pitching market also appears to be exorbitant, with everybody waiting on Zack Greinke to officially set the market, and then guys like Anibal Sanchez, Kyle Lohse, and Ryan Dempster in line to be overpaid behind him.

So if you're going to trade Jacoby now, it might be worth looking at acquiring some pitching. My favorite target entering the offseason was Josh Johnson, who I thought could be had for a relative bargain compared to his upside. Obviously, Toronto agreed with me.

Now, one of the more talked-about targets is Cliff Lee in Philadelphia (who Ted's Army's Ben Fountain is a big fan of). The Phillies have been beaten in their efforts to sign BJ Upton and Angel Pagan, and, barring an overpay of Michael Bourn, is looking at being pretty weak at the position, so they might be interested in Ellsbury. Such a move would give them a chance to unload a substantial contract: Lee is owed $75 million over the next three years, with a $27.5 million option ($12.5 million buyout per Cot's). Philly has committed long-term dollars to Cole Hamels, Roy Halladay, Jonathan Papelbon, Jimmy Rollins, and Ryan Howard, and might want to free up some money for extra pieces.

I've been against such a move when I've thought about it in the past, but it bears some consideration when you consider the market we're in. What if Greinke gets seven years, $165 million, as some are speculating? And then Sanchez gets five or six, at or approaching $100 million? Is an $87 million commitment to Lee -- a true front-of-the-rotation guy who has pitched in a variety of settings, including the postseason -- that exorbitant? Given the Red Sox' financial might, they are likely not to care about the money as much as the years, so this sort of contract appears to be something that might appeal to them more than most.

Obviously, this is all pure speculation. We don't know if Philly is interested in Ellsbury, nor what else would be involved (Would Boston have to kick in prospects? Would Philly kick in money?). We don't know Ellsbury's value. We don't know whether Philly would risk flipping one of its more stable players for somebody who is quite unstable and will not sign before becoming a free agent. But expect to hear that the two sides at least talk about it.

One page 2, the Red Sox were simply outbid for Dan Haren.

Your Morning Dump...Where Ellsbury will stay the man in center, for now

Every morning, we compile the links of the day and dump them here... highlighting the big storyline. Because there's nothing quite as satisfying as a good morning dump.

By agreeing yesterday with B.J. Upton on a five-year, $75.25 million contract, the Atlanta Braves won the battle for one of the big names in a market flush with center fielders. Michael Bourn, Angel Pagan and, of course, Josh Hamilton remain available, and the Braves have left their NL East rivals, the Philadelphia Phillies and Washington Nationals, to duke it out over those options.

From a distance, the Red Sox [team stats] will watch with interest.

For now, at least, there aren’t any signs the Sox have plans to trade Jacoby Ellsbury [stats], eligible for arbitration once more before becoming a free agent after next season, at which point he figures to receive offers well in excess of the contract Upton signed with Atlanta. (Unlike Ellsbury, Upton has never been an All-Star, to say nothing of an MVP runner-up.) And their reluctance is multifaceted:

[...]

“He’s our center fielder, and there’s been no discussions with regard to him that I’m aware of,” Lucchino said. “You don’t know whether someone is going to come to you and make some kind of proposal, but our plan is to have Jacoby Ellsbury as our center fielder this year going forward.”

Herald: Jacoby Ellsbury set in CF...for now

I would love nothing more than having the Red Sox sign Jacoby Ellsbury to a long term deal for the right price. We all know the "right price" figure is much different in our heads than in the greedy head of Scott Boras.

I have accepted that Ellsbury's time with the Red Sox is growing thin and the likes of Jackie Bradley will help us forget about him. Unless the Sox make a trade or signing, they need Ellsbury in center. There is no one else out there, and no one in the minors that is ready for an everyday spot in the outfield. I mentioned Jackie Bradley, who is highly regarded, but is AT LEAST one season away from a call-up.

We are just embarking on the month of December, which means there is a lot of time for moves to happen. The Sox have been relatively quiet up until this point with any trades or free-agent signings, but don't be surprised if a lot happens in the near future.

Ellsbury will remain the Sox' CF until the surrounding positions in the outfield are filled. When they are, I do hope the Sox won't do anything stupid with him.

On Page 2, Alfredo Aceves won't fit in 2013

Cherington expects to have a high payroll in 2013. Where's the money going?

 

(NSFW language)

Red Sox GM Ben Cherington went on WEEI today and had some scary interesting things to say. 

First, he admitted to talking to Miami about some players, but then implied that any deal wouldn't fit the team's approach. Which is something good for once. Taking a slow & steady approach. Jose Reyes & Josh Johnson would've been nice additions for 2013 but with Boegarts almost ready & Johnson slowly morphing into Josh Beckett 2.0, it wouldn't help the team long term. Sounds smart.

Then he started talking about 2013. 

First he talked about the payroll: 

"I know that we'll have a very strong payroll, a large payroll," he said. "I know that we're going to add to it this winter. I'm confident in saying that it will be amongst the larger payrolls in the game. … It depends on what we do. We're not going to shoot for an arbitrary payroll number just to say that we're going to get to this. We just have to look at each opportunity as it comes and figure out, is this the right thing for the Red Sox?"

So the key thing is we need to define: what exactly would a "large payroll" entail? Looking at the payroll committments thus far: Three teams are already commited in paying $120 million (the Dodgers are already committed to $193 million! We really can't thank them enough.) Five more teams are a few more signings away from hitting the nine figure range.  The Sox are in the middle of the pack, having only committed $45.6 million. 

So let's figure that estimate that in order to be one of the higher payrolls in the league, around top five where they have been for nearly a decade, the Sox would have a $150 million payroll. That's nearly $105 million they have available to them. What in the hell happened to slow and steady? 

Your Morning Dump...where Ellsbury is still the most important decision

Every morning, we compile the links of the day and dump them here... highlighting the big storyline. Because there's nothing quite as satisfying as a good morning dump.

Depending on how you value Ellsbury, there are two ways to view this option. One, the Red Sox should trade him now before his stock drops further as his MVP-caliber season goes farther into the rear-view mirror. Two, they should keep him and let him rebuild value in the first half rather than sell low following the disappointing year he just had. It’s worth noting that if Ellsbury is traded at the deadline, his new team wouldn’t be able to recoup draft pick compensation if he signs elsewhere. That will factor into trade talks.

Determining a proper return given the last few years is very tough. Is this a situation like Matt Holliday, who was a legit star when he was traded from the Rockies to the Athletics? Is he the inconsistent Melky Cabrera going from the Royals to the Giants? Is he worth more in a deal than Shin-Soo Choo? The Red Sox have a number of holes on the big league roster and could fill one or two (or three?) by moving Ellsbury this winter. There’s no shortage of teams in need of a center fielder, especially one who has demonstrated the ability to be an impact player.

Fangraphs | Jacoby Ellsbury's three outcomes

Mike Axisa covers the Red Sox' options with Jacoby Ellsbury (much like I did here a few weeks back) and essentially concludes that the team should either sign him long term or trade him. He doesn't come out and say it, but if you read the piece it sounds like he most advocates trading Jacoby.

It all comes down to -- like with virtually any roster move -- what people are willing to pay. If you can find anyone to compensate you for a near-MVP-level performance, I think you have to do it. If the wider market sees him as inferior to Shin-Soo Choo, then we have issues.

Probably the Sox' best move is to lay low and deny they want to trade him (check), and monitor the BJ Upton market carefully. Let's say the Nationals (as widely suspected) court Upton pretty significantly, but at the last second the Yankees swoop in and give him $90 million. Next day, Ben should call up the Nationals and see what they'd part with to get Ellsbury, and maybe their willingness to fill that role will result in a better package coming Boston's way.

Herald | AL East breakdown: Tampa Bay Rays at start line | Globe | No wonder the Red Sox love Mike Napoli | CSNNE | Wakeup call: Crawford may be ready for Opening Day | ESPNBoston | Source: Red Sox taking hard look at Napoli

FOX: Red Sox not looking to deal Ellsbury

This morning in talking about the Red Sox' possibility to trade Jacoby Ellsbury, I mentioned three options: keep him for his walk year, sign him long term, or trade him. According to Ken Rosenthal, the Sox are looking to pursue option number 1.

I can't say I blame them. His value is certainly down thanks to being hurt all year. Plus, as already discussed, he's a big revenue generator, and he's likely to have a huge year since he's playing for a contract. You know, as long as he doesn't twist his ankle in spring training and miss four months.

(h/t MLBTradeRumors)

Your Morning Dump...where an Ellsbury trade is in play

Every morning, we compile the links of the day and dump them here... highlighting the big storyline. Because there's nothing quite as satisfying as a good morning dump.

The last time Ben Cherington worked the general managers meetings in Frank Sinatra’s old stomping grounds was seven years ago, when he was job-sharing with co-GM Jed Hoyer. The duo laid the groundwork then for one of the more monumental trades in recent Red Soxhistory: Hanley Ramirez and Anibal Sanchez to the Marlins for Josh Beckett[stats] and  Mike Lowell.

Cherington now is solely in charge and the only piece of that 2005 trade still in Boston, but one constant remains: The Red Sox [team stats] are going to be looking for an impact trade. That would mean trading center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury [stats], and while the odds never favor a blockbuster, the Sox have a recent track record of being very active on the trade front, large and small.

If they have not yet approached teams about Ellsbury, they should, listening to any and all inquiries. Sometimes, trade destinations crawl out of the woodwork at the oddest times and places.

Herald | Jacoby Ellsbury a trade chip at talks

The Jacoby Ellsbury decision is, simply, the most pivotal in Ben Cherington's efforts to turn around the Red Sox. He has three options:

1. Let him ride out the remaining year of his contract and hit free agency. Based on history, it's easy to assume we'll get an excellent year from Ellsbury given that he is in his prime and playing for a contract.

2. Attempt to negotiate a long-term extension before his deal expires, keeping Ellsbury in Boston for the what could be the remainder of his career. Based on Scott Boras being his agent, it's easy to assume that this might not be possible, or if it were possible, it would require eight to ten years and probably somewhere in the vicinity of $200 million.

3. Trade him.

I've argued in the past for trading him. I liked the idea better last year after what I believe to be an aberration of an MVP campaign, but it's still worth exploring.

The most popular rumor seems to be a deal with the Texas Rangers involving Elvis Andrus. The reason it's so popular is that it would appear to satisfy everyone's needs. Texas is brimming with money but isn't willing to spend it on Josh Hamilton, so they have a hole in their lineup. Meanwhile, they have uberprospect Jurickson Profar coming up at short. The Red Sox famously can't fill the hole at short, and with Andrus under contract for two more years, they would have some stability. He is a Boras client, so they'd face the same conundrum next offseason as they are with Ellsbury now.

Other names pop up -- Justin Upton being chief among them -- but I don't see any other deal popping up unless it is merely flipping him for near-major-league-ready prospects.

All of this said, I wouldn't expect the Red Sox to trade him. I think Ben Cherington might want to -- as that snippet at the top indicates, he's not afraid of a big move -- but I fear the business folks will get involved. Ellsbury drives the pink hat revenue stream; it might be scary to face the future without it.

Herald | Ben Cherington takes lead | Globe | Red Sox in a position to take some chances | ESPNBoston | Five trades Red Sox should explore | Pedroia on Bobby V: "We talked well" | CSNNE | Sox have decisions on minor leaguers before Rule 5 draft

Your Morning Dump...where we may have seen the last of Cody Ross

Every morning, we compile the links of the day and dump them here... highlighting the big storyline. Because there's nothing quite as satisfying as a good morning dump.

“When I first talked to Cody about coming here, the goal obviously was to do well as a team, but part of the goal was to put him in a better position,” Red Sox general manager Ben Cherington said yesterday. “I felt it could put him in a better position by coming here and performing in this ballpark. The good news is that it did. That’s to his credit. He’s in a good position now. It makes it tougher to sign him.”

The Red Sox could have made Ross a one-year, $13.3 million qualifying offer to assure draft-pick compensation if he leaves. But there also was a chance he would accept, and while the Sox are interested in re-signing him, they don’t believe he’s worth $13.3 million.

“We’ll keep the door open, and we’ll continue to talk,” Cherington said. “But once we’re in free agency, he’s got opportunities to talk to other teams, and we fully expect him to do that.”

Herald | Cody Ross may cash in elsewhere

Meanwhile, Ross is looking for three years, $25 million, not quite the Josh Willingham contract people pegged him for, but not far off either.

Will Boston go that far? I'm tempted to say no, but it's worth remembering that they have very little on the books. The answer might come in tandem with the team's plans for Jacoby Ellsbury. If the Sox are planning trading Ellsbury, or merely letting him walk after this year, they might be more willing to devote some extra resources to locking in a guy who likes Boston, even on a deal that's probably not going to pay off.

If they're re-signing Ells? Then it gets harder to justify $8 million a year on a guy who may or may not be a glorified fourth outfielder.

Of course, both of these ideas could be wrong. They could bring back both, or they could exile both. In a lot of ways, it depends on the organization's philosophy. Do they continue to be the baseball version of the Patriots, digging their heels in on a certain value and telling the player to find a better deal elsewhere (as they did with Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira, and even David Ortiz for a number of years)? Or, is Ortiz's latest contract a sign that they're willing to overpay a bit just to make sure they bring in (or keep) the right type of player?

If I had to guess, I say Ross is gone. I think the Papi deal will prove to be the exception, not the rule, and they'll be happy for Ross' one-year rental and his subsequent deal elsewhere, as they were with Adrian Beltre.

Herald | Papi's powerful enough to link past greatness to future success | Cherington goes all-in on Ortiz two-year deal | David Ortiz defends vs. Bobby Valentine | Globe | Sox and Ortiz are together | CSNNE | Cherington on Ross: 'Door will remain open' | Red Sox still trying to piece together coaching staff | Cherington eyes upcoming general manager meetings | Red Sox, Ortiz happy to move forward with two-year deal | ESPNBoston | David Ortiz: I didn't shut it down | David Ortiz could earn up to $30 million | Sources: Ross still waiting for three-year offer | Source: Boston set on pitching coach | Red Sox to add medical director

Your Morning Dump...Where the Sox haven't put much effort into signing Ross

Every morning, we compile the links of the day and dump them here... highlighting the big storyline. Because there's nothing quite as satisfying as a good morning dump.

Speaking by phone Saturday afternoon, free agent Cody Ross said that he and the Red Sox never closed in on a potential deal leading up to the end of the period allowing the Sox exclusive negotiating rights.

“It hasn’t been really what I would say close,” said Ross.

Ross said his agent, Mike Milchin, received calls from “multiple teams” after the midnight deadline expired Friday night expressing interest in the 31 year-old. It’s a dynamic that has altered Ross’ mindset heading into the rest of the offseason.

“Yeah, definitely, because now it’s going to be more complex with other teams involved. It’s not just [the Red Sox],” he explained when asked if his thinking had changed post-deadline. “They had a ton of opportunities. We talked about this back in July and we couldn’t work anything out up until the deadline. Now it only makes sense to listen to other teams. But obviously we’re going to talk [with the Red Sox."

Still, when asked if he had an inkling as to what was about to transpire, Ross admitted, "To be 100 percent honest with you, no, not one bit."

One possibility that seemingly was in play leading up to Friday was that of the Red Sox offering the one-year, $13.3 million qualifying offer to Ross. If the Sox did choose that route, it would have been presumably to prioritizing keeping any commitment short-term while paying more annually that would be earned in a multi-year deal.

WEEI: Cody Ross: Red Sox 'had a ton of opportunities' to get deal done

Cody Ross was a pleasant surprise for the Red Sox in 2012, aside from all the strikeouts. Ross provided a couple of walk-off's, some late-inning heroics, big home runs, all to result in a last place finish. The finish isn't the point, it is more of the bargain that the Red Sox got for his production. Cody's $3 million contract was obviously well short of his value to the team, but the Sox sure don't think that a $10 million raise is a reasonable offer.

The stats prove that Fenway Park is a perfect place for Cody's bat. At Fenway, Cody Ross had a .298 average, a .921 OPS, 74 hits, 25 doubles, 1 triple. 13 homers, 49 RBI, and 59 strikeouts. On the road, Cody batted .232, with a .684 OPS, 53 hits, 9 double, 0 triples, 9 homers, 32 RBI, and 70 strikeouts. Overall, he had his best season since 2009, and the second best of his career. If the Sox played at Fenway for 162 games, I would be all for the $13.3 million.

Cody Ross is more of a 6-8, maybe 9 million dollar man, and it all depends on where he plays. Detroit would likely be a horrible place for Cody. Safeco Field in Seattle would probably be another place that doesn't suit his bat. There are others, but I'll let you do the research on the sizes of the rest of the parks in the league.

I would love to see Cody Ross come back to Boston for 2013 and possibly beyond, but I am not sure if the Sox are willing to bring him back for anything above the double-digit mark. Some team in the league is probably going to throw him a contract that will far outweigh the financial positives of one that the Red Sox will throw at him, and he will bite. Who knows if Cody will ever have an opportunity like this again, where his value is at it's peak for possibly the last time.

It will be interesting to see what he is offered by other teams.

(Photo: Jim Rogash, Getty Images)

On page 2, is trading Ellsbury the Sox' best option for this off-season?