Ted's Army: The Voice of Red Sox fans

Your Morning Dump...Where Pap is confident in success for Sox

Every morning we compile the links of the day and dump them here... highlighting the big storyline. Because there's nothing quite as satisfying as a good morning dump...

"They'll be motivated, no question about it,'' said Papelbon after arriving in camp with the Philadelphia Phillies. "There's too many good guys in the clubhouse, too many competitors, too many who have too much pride to just lay down. Those guys aren't going to come into this season and lay down. They're going to work hard, there's no doubt about it.''
   
Papelbon was asked about some of the lack of commitment of some teammates last year when the Sox hit the skids in the final month and lost out on a playoff spot.

"Everybody has his own opinion about what went on there,'' said Papelbon. "Nobody knows what truly was going on. I don't even know because I was worried about myself and doing my own job. Just because a team struggles doesn't mean that not doing what they're supposed to be doing.

CSNNE: Pap: Sox will make up for 2011

What's better than calling for the Sox to make up for last season and knowing if they don't achieve that goal, you had nothing to do with it this time? He could say "The Red Sox will not re-coup from last season because they don't have the talent or confidence", and it wouldn't matter. Blow a few important games in September and jump ship, then say everything will be fine for the former club. I don't sound bitter at all. I know it was the right thing to say and he has moved on, but this is a different mix of players and a mostly new coaching staff. Who knows how, or if, this team will react and redeem themselves.

There are a few new faces on this club and they have no thoughts of redemption in 2012. Same for the coaching staff with the except of Bogar. It is time to just forget about 2011 and go into this season just playing for 2012 and don't try too hard to make things right. Sure the image of last season will forever be burned in our minds, but it is in the past and there is nothing any Sox player or coach can say to make it right or change anything. Long story short, It's time for Pap to focus on Philly and only Philly, and I hope this is the last thing I write that concerns the 2011 season.

The rest of the links:

Herald: It's now or never for Sox | Globe: 'Sorry' doesn't have to be the hardest word | CSNNE: Aviles excited for everyday opportunity | ESPNBoston: Morning report: We'll hear from Beckett 

Your Morning Dump... Where the pitching staff is taking shape

Every morning we compile the links of the day and dump them here... highlighting the big storyline. Because there's nothing quite as satisfying as a good morning dump.

Andrew Bailey’s arrival has started a positive domino effect on the rest of the pitching staff.

Newly acquired reliever Mark Melancon doesn’t have to deal with the pressure of closing in Boston and instead can become an eighth-inning arm.

In turn, Daniel Bard can more easily shift into the rotation rather than be held in reserve as a possible closer. And Alfredo Aceves can remain a swing man, slip into the rotation or maybe even assume a late-innings relief role.

Bailey makes those options much more palatable. But even with the back of the bullpen and the top of the rotation more clearly defined, the Red Sox still will be in the market for another starter this winter, particularly if they want to keep Aceves in the bullpen, where he was so valuable last season.

Herald - Deal puts staff ahead in count

Melancon + Bailey ≠ Bard + Papelbon

Let's get that out of the way now and temper our expectations.  Bailey is a good, young closer, but he's not elite.  He went from being dominant in 2009 and 2010 to being just plain good in 2011.  In fact, he gave up 34 hits in 41 innings last year (34 in 49 the year prior, and 49 in 83 in '09), compared to 50 surrendered by Papelbon through 64 innings.   Taking it a step further, Bailey's WHIP last season was 1.10 and Papelbon's was 0.93.  So if you were one of those people that were ripping their hair out because Papelbon always seemed to have a runner or two on base, well, you may want to prepare yourself for more of the same.

But bringing in Bailey for what seems like a pretty low price is a monumental stepping stone for the pitching staff as a whole.  Bard can now move to the rotation without having to worry about being plugged into the closer role.  Melancon's role is now clearly defined.  The last pieces are Aceves and the 5th spot in the rotation.

Aceves can prepare to start and Cherington can look for another starter or two.  You know, that whole depth thing we keep hearing about.  And if they do bring in another starter (or two), Aceves is going to be the long man in the bullpen anyway, so getting his arm strength up and preparing to go 5-6-7 innings is in everybody's best interest. 

Roy Oswalt makes too much sense not to bring aboard.  He's the Sox dream free agent: veteran with somethign to prove, willing to sign a one-year deal to prove it.  I could be very happy with a rotation of Beckett, Lester, Buchholz, Oswalt and Bard. 

Rest of the links:

Herald - Ryan Kalish suffers setback | Globe - Kalish won’t be ready to start | PawSox select new broadcaster | Valentine set to meet with more players | WEEI - Still the strength: Taking stock of Red Sox 2012 lineup | ESPN - Valentine: Melancon, Bailey fill a big void

Your Morning Dump...where the Sox should probably work on filling that closer position.

Every morning, well most mornings and sometimes in the afternoon, we compile the links of the day and dump them here... highlighting the big storyline. Because there's nothing quite as satisfying as a good morning dump.

The Red Sox do not necessarily need to obtain a closer via trade or free agency. Replacing Jonathan Papelbon could be as easy as giving the job to Daniel Bard.

But the wide selection of closers available gives general manager Ben Cherington an opportunity to be creative. Picking one up would allow Bard to be tried as a starter or remain in his role as a versatile set-up man.

Free agents Francisco Cordero, Brad Lidge, Ryan Madson, and Francisco Rodriguez remain on the market. With only a limited number of teams - the Reds and perhaps one or two others - seeking a closer, the Red Sox could get an experienced closer at a bargain later this month.

“We’ve certainly made progress as far as understanding more what it’s going to take to acquire pitching of all sorts of flavors,’’ Cherington said yesterday. “We felt like that’s what this was really going to be about for us. It would be more information gathered than execution most likely, these days in Dallas.’’

The trade market could prove a better route. The Red Sox are engaged in discussions with Oakland regarding closer Andrew Bailey. The righthander is coming off the worst season of his career (3.24 ERA, 1.10 WHIP), but is only 27 and is healthy after starting last season on the disabled list.

Globe:Many options for Red Sox regarding closers

Well before I can even berate this list, it's been reported that K-Rod is accepting salary arbitration from the Brewers and set up for John Axford. Apparently closing isn't high on the list for K-Rod anymore.

With that out of the way, let's see what's left to pick from. Cordero had a quality year: 37 saves, 2.45 ERA. Hitters only managed to hit .198 against him last year. But the 36 year old wasn't able to dominate like he used to as he had a career low in strikeouts per 9 innings (5.4). His stats scream out CONTRACT YEAR but for a one year stop gap... he could be the guy.

Lidge was relegated to setting up Madson after a shoulder injury landed him on the DL. He only pitched 19 2/3 innings but he didn't meltdown like he did in 2009. It's probably the best for him to re-sign with Philly and set up Papelbon then try and close, especially in Boston. As for Madson, he did really well replacing Lidge (32 saves out of 34 opportunities) but at 32, is he really worth the 4 year deal that Scott Boras is looking for him? Hell no.

That leaves us with Oakland's Andrew Bailey who is 27 and has potential to be a really good closer. As Peter Abraham said above, he's had his worst year but he had a 3.24 ERA & a WHIP of 1.104.  This would mean that a deal would have to be centered around Josh Reddick, which sucks because it would be great to see him play a full year in right field, but Bailey would be worth it. If the Sox can pull off this trade without giving up Reddick or future third basemen Will Middlebrooks, then Cherington suddenly looks like a genius.

Of course, if he had showed any interest in the best closer in the market, Jonathan Papelbon, the Sox wouldn't be in this position.

Rest of the Links: Globe:Ortiz accepts arbitration|Team in need of toughness|Many options for Red Sox when it comes to a closer|Herald:Valentine stokes Yankees-Red Sox rivalry fire|Ortiz chooses to accept arbitration|Red Sox play waiting game|CSNNE:Converting Bard to starter will be no easy task|Addressing the OF not a priority| Ortiz takes Sox up on arbitration offer|WEEI:The waiting game|Madson in musical chairs game|

Your Morning Dump... Where the Sox didn't try to keep Papelbon

Every morning, we compile the links of the day and dump them here... highlighting the big storyline. Because there's nothing quite as satisfying as a good morning dump.

Papelbon's timing was exquisite. He saved what was arguably his best year for his walk year, and there was never any doubt -- not after he had turned down a chance to sign multiyear deals earlier in his career in order to collect top dollar year to year in the arbitration process -- that he was going to the team that showed him the money. And no closer has ever gotten a bigger deal than the one just landed by Papelbon.

New GM Ben Cherington saw it coming. That's why, he said Friday, the Sox never made Papelbon an offer. No way, he said, to "bridge the gap" between what Papelbon was bound to get and what the Sox were willing to pay, especially this early in the process. And there was no last-second call from Papelbon's agents offering the Sox a chance to trump the Phillies' offer. Cherington said the Sox weren't owed one, not when both sides were clear on where the other stood.

Papelbon's departure just made Cherington's job that much harder. Barely a month into his term, Cherington has to pick the right manager, the right pitching coach and now the right closer, in a place where mistakes go unforgiven.

ESPN Boston - Timing is everything in closing

First off, props to Paps.  He always said his goal was to get the largest closer deal in baseball.  Mission accomplished.

I'm firmly entrenched in the 'Keep Papelbon' camp.  While everyone else is packing up their sleeping bags and tents and heading home, I'm still hanging out in disbelief.  No matter how hard I try to repress the memories, I can still recall what 9th innings were like before Papelbon's arrival.  And trying to figure out what they'll look like in 2012 is nearly as terrifying.

But Gordon Edes whips out a silver lining to all of this: There are some quality arms available to fill that slot, and as Tampa Bay proved, you can get by with someone like Kyle Farnsworth dealing in the 9th.  Not all hope is lost.

The fact that Cherington never made Papelbon an offer is a bit unsettling.  This looks like the third step in the changing of the guard, and I can't help but assume Papi is next.  If the Sox do intend to bring Papi back, and are looking for a PR win, it'd behoove them to sign him within the next couple days and follow that by announcing their new manager.

If they aren't going to bring Papi back, just rip off the band-aid and turn the page.  I'd hate to get steamrolled by the news that he's agreed to a 3 year deal with the Yankees. 

On that note, WEEI has this quote from Cherington: "We have had a lot of dialogue with David and his agents... David knows we want him to be here. We want him to be back with the Red Sox. We want him in our lineup. We've had a lot of dialogue to see if there's a way to do that and I think that will continue."

We never heard that kind of talk about Papelbon; so that's something.

(Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images)

Rest of the links:

Herald - Red Sox fans: Don’t let bullpen door hit you on way out! | Jonathan Papelbon to Philadelphia | CSNNE - Papelbon sets bar for closers | Globe - Closing thought: We’ll miss his zany greatness | Red Sox close door on past with Papelbon | Quick analysis: Sox may regret losing Papelbon | WEEI - Money in the ninth: Ryan Madson deal raises bar for Jonathan Papelbon, closer market

CSNPhilly: Papelbon agrees to deal with Phillies

I was just putting together a Pulitzer-winning post on Ryan Madson's ongoing odyssey with the Phillies when the news came down that Jonathan Papelbon has agreed to a deal with Philadelphia. Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly reported the deal first, though he hasn't mentioned contract numbers.

Earlier today, ESPN's Jayson Stark wrote about how the Phillies appeared to push more toward Papelbon when it became clear that he could be had for a "not dramatically higher" deal than the one Madson was supposedly to sign for.

As a type A free agent, Papelbon will at least give the Red Sox compensation in the form of the 31st pick in next year's draft, barring that Philly doesn't sign another type-A free agent.

Update, 2:47 PM: Salisbury is reporting the deal is for four years and nearly $50 million (via MLBTR). He doesn't mention it, but I bet there's an option year as well, as was reported for the Madson deal that fell through.

Update, 3:11 PM: Jayson Stark tweeted that the deal includes a vesting option that could push the total amount to $60 million. I'd guess that's an easily vested option, but there's no more detail at this moment.

Breaking: Papelbon to Philly

Twitter / @JSalisburyCSN: The Phils and Papelbon hav ... via kwout

See ya Paps.  It's been real.

Your Morning Dump...where the Phillies are setting the closer market

Every morning, we compile the links of the day and dump them here... highlighting the big storyline. Because there's nothing quite as satisfying as a good morning dump

The market may have been set for Jonathan Papelbon today when the Phillies agreed to terms with their closer, Ryan Madson, on a four-year, $44 million deal with an option for a fifth season.

Madson, 31, has an earned run average of 3.59 and 52 saves over parts of nine seasons. Papelbon, who turns 31 later this month, has a 2.33 ERA and 219 saves over seven seasons.

If Madson is worth $11 million a year, Papelbon could land a deal with an average annual value of $14 million.

Globe | Good news (and some bad) for Papelbon 

Abraham goes on to say that the bad news is that there is one less destination for Pap (Philadelphia), but that isn't nearly as important as the good side of this story.

Abraham wonders if Pap can get 4/56...well of course he can. The market has been set with a guy who was really good for one year and was otherwise a good set-up man. Pap doesn't start at 4/56 -- that's a worst-case scenario.

His agents will start with no less than 5/75, and probably with an option year. Madson gets a vesting option, and since Pap has been consistent and healthy, there is no reason for him to get a shorter deal.

The story around possible suitors doesn't concern me. Guys always get their money. How many teams were interested in Alex Rodriguez when he opted out of his hefty contract a few years back? The Yankees ponied up 10 years and $275 million, and I guarantee you the Brewers weren't sitting there with a 9-year, $250 million offer.

Pap's gonna get his money, and as I've been saying all along, it's gonna be a lot. Maybe too much, thanks to Philadelphia. The saving grace? The deal might not go through: Jon Heyman tweeted that the deal has been agreed to (between the GM and agent) for 24 hours, but Philly's CEO has yet to approve it. Perhaps it will be too rich for his blood...which we can only hope.

Globe | Red Sox to interview Lovullo on Friday, Lamont on Saturday | Red Sox keep ticket prices the same | Herald | Alomar, Lovullo, Lamont due up | No more tears or fears | Terry Francona and Cardinals meet | ESPNBoston | Red Sox announce next 3 interviews | Red Sox keep ticket prices the same after collapse | Source: Red Sox talked Carlos Beltran

Your Morning Dump...where another team reaches out to Papelbon

Every morning, we compile the links of the day and dump them here... highlighting the big storyline. Because there's nothing quite as satisfying as a good morning dump

Of course, this won't be the only time somebody does contact Papelbon. But it's scary to start to hear and start to think about the possibility of him gone.

The weird thing is, according to Rob Bradford, Philly seems more interested in retaining Ryan Madson. Now, I know in free agency you're not supposed to pay for past performance, but Pap has a significantly more established track record. Madson closed well last year, but was a set-up man in the past. He also closed here and there in previous years whenever Brad Lidge was hurt, and really struggled at the time. Perhaps he's over it now.

Meanwhile, Papelbon is in a two-man class, and the other man is in his 40s. I used to discount the value of closers, but the more this saga goes on, and the closer we get to the possibility of Papelbon playing elsewhere, I'm starting to think he might actually be underrated. 

Bradford also noted, in his tweet publicizing his piece, that Papelbon's agents are "typically aggressive early in the offseason." I would be surprised to see him sign early; usually big-time free agents let the market establish itself first. But it's still something to watch. 

Herald | No Mike Maddux in Sox mix | Globe | Maddux won't talk with Sox | Cherington: Other candidates to be added | CSNNE | Maddux withdraws as Sox candidate, cites family reasons | ESPNBoston | Maddux out of Red Sox search; still on for Cubs | Cubs interview Sveum for manager position

Your Morning Dump...Where Papelbon is the best closer on the market

 
Every morning, we compile the links of the day and dump them here... highlighting the big storyline. Because there's nothing quite as satisfying as a good morning dump

The closer is the best available one in a crowded free agent market, but that’s almost beside the point. What’s much more important is that he has proven he can do it in Boston, where every blown save necessitates the convening of a congressional panel and where the lineups in the brutal AL East are built to erode even the best pitchers.

While it’s easy to look at this deep free agent class and say the Sox should save some money on a Tier B option like Ryan Madson or Joe Nathan, such an approach would be penny-wise, but pound-foolish.[...]

Herald: Smart money's on Papelbon

John Tomase went on to compare the other potential closers on the market in Heath Bell, Francisco Rodriguez, and Ryan Madson. He explained why none of them would be a good fit in Boston. To summarize, Health Bell is too old and fat, Rodriguez could come through with the Mets, and Madson doesn't have the long-term experience. Then there is Bard, who blew his chances in September.

It makes all the sense to sign Papelbon, especially with those bums being the competition. Pap is a great fit for the team and loves pitching in high-pressure situations. Sure he has had his down, but what closer hasn't? His 31 saves last season was good for lowest save total in his career. For those of you who are saying  "Nuh Uh, he has no saves in 2005", that season doesn't count because they had no idea what they were doing with him. In baseball terms, 2006 was his rookie season, so he has done pretty damn well in his career. My argument went astray for a second, but I got back to my point. 

I think we can all agree, sign Papelbon, and move on to the next free agent...Ortiz?

The rest of the links:

Globe: Two approaches to managing have emerged | Report: Duquette, Orioles close on deal | Herald: It's time for El Tiante | Jose Reyes worth a look for Sox | WEEI:  Pete Mackanin faces age-old managerial question

Gammons: 3 years, $45 million could satisfy Papelbon

It's not a true report or an exact quote from Papelbon's agent, but Peter Gammons' comments to WEEI's Mut and Merloni midday show indicate that Pap could be relatively affordable:

How much are they going to be willing to pay a closer? Papelbon and his agents are going to be looking for about what they say the Red Sox offered Mariano Rivera, which is three times {$15 million]. Is somebody going to go out and give it to him? There are a lot of closers on the market: Papelbon, Francisco Rodriguez, Ryan Madson, Heath Bell, Frankie Francisco, even Joe Nathan, although he's coming off Tommy John surgery. I don't know if that kind of money's going to be out there.

[...]

But I think it's going to be sort of a narrow bridge for the Red Sox to cross here. I don't think they can get Papelbon wrapped up quickly for less than three times [$15 million]. ... I have thus far not seen a team that I definitely think would jump in hard on Papelbon. I think a lot of teams will go after him. But whether or not they can get three or four years, that's another issue.

Three years, $45 million? That's certainly less than I thought he might start demanding. Ben, make the call and get that done right now. 

Look, I know the stat guys say that you shouldn't throw money at closers. And by and large I agree with them. But in this specific situation -- with this player on this staff in this market -- I think this is fair. The money is relatively unimportant -- whether we like it or not, the Red Sox barely have a budget when it comes to player salaries.

It's the term. Three years? I still don't believe it. I don't think he'll go for less than three years and an option, and I still wouldn't be surprised if he gets four or five guaranteed years. I certainly don't think an offer today of 3/45 would bring him back to Boston. But Peter's a Hall of Famer, and he's certainly more knowledgeable than I am.

Stay tuned. If these comments are to be believed, there might not be as much drama in bringing back Pap as you might have originally thought.

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