Ted's Army: The Voice of Red Sox fans

ESPN: Andrew Bailey could be available

On a day dominated by the Yankees bringing back old guys, the Red Sox have their own bit of gossip, as Buster Olney tweets of Andrew Bailey's availability.

I would say this one ranks even lower in likelihood than the Lester-for-Myers rumor, mainly because Bailey's value is so low it's incomprehensible that the team would pawn him off. 

Last year, the Red Sox acquired Bailey along with Ryan Sweeney for Josh Reddick. Reddick blew up, smacking 32 homers and 29 doubles as an unlikely key cog on an unlikely successful run by the A's. Bailey was hurt, and then pretty bad, compiling a 7+ ERA over 15 innings. 

Now, we all know the team subscribes to the theory that a sunk cost is a sunk cost, but there's also public perception. The Red Sox are not going to send off Bailey for a middling prospect or two when the year before they gave up a 30-home run hitter for him. And no one's going to trade anything more than a middling prospect, so look forward to Bailey as the closer at the start of 2013.

At the deadline, assuming we're well out of contention? Then you might have a different story.

Your Morning Dump...where the young guys aren't looking good

Every morning, we compile the links of the day and dump them here... highlighting the big storyline. Because there's nothing quite as satisfying as a good morning dump.

With the Red Sox [team stats] in full-on 2013 mode, the play of the two rookies has come under the microscope, and the findings haven’t exactly been electric.

Lavarnway, who started at catcher and batted sixth last night against the New York Yankees, is hitting .161 with one home run in 87 at-bats after an 0-for-4 that included three strikeouts in the 4-3 win. Iglesias was on the bench, mired in a 2-for-22 (.091) slump since returning on Aug. 25.

If one wants to throw young outfielder Ryan Kalish into the mix, he’s struggling, too, batting ..229 with three extra-base hits (all doubles) in 96 at-bats.

“Well, I don’t know if there’s any decisions that have to be made on any one of those three guys, necessarily,” Sox manager Bobby Valentine said before the game. “That’s what’s done all the time, during the season, during the offseason. You have to sometimes use what you believe you saw and go forward with it, and then hope that they’re healthy afterward.”

Herald | Jose Iglesias, Ryan Lavarnway show little potential

Perhaps I should spend more time basking in last night's win, but as Tomase indicates for Boston, I'm in full-on 2013 mode as well.

And I can't help but be worried. 

There hasn't been a bigger Jose Iglesias supporter than me. I'm not even that concerned with his bat -- if he hits as well as Mike Aviles has this year, that's enough, and Mike Aviles hasn't sniffed a .300 OBP in quite a while. But Jose isn't even close to Aviles' level -- in a very small sample, Iglesias has a .303 OPS. OPS! .303! That's really bad!

Granted, it's 25 PA's. Lavarnway's sample is a bit bigger, but nearly as horrible.

Does this mean they can't contribute next year? No. But it is a concern. And Ryan Kalish's continued mediocrity also makes me nervous. Remember when we traded Josh Reddick because Ryan Kalish showed more promise?

I'm still on board for a youth movement next year. I'd like to see all three guys start next year, and not in some dumb platoon. Give them some security, show some faith in them, and see what happens. 

On page 2...what's up with Jon Lester's control?

 

 

Your Morning Dump... Where Nava's getting some love

Every morning, we compile the links of the day and dump them here... highlighting the big storyline. Because there's nothing quite as satisfying as a good morning dump.

Daniel Nava arrived on May 10 in time for the Red Sox [team stats] to fall to 12-19. They’re 15-6 since, good for the second-best record in baseball.

Coincidence? Hardly.

“I’m absolutely amazed,” said manager Bobby Valentine. “Absolutely amazed.”

At the start of camp, Nava probably didn’t even rank among the team’s top dozen outfielders. But he homered in Washington in the last exhibition game, catching Valentine’s eye, and then found his way back to Boston when injuries to a half-dozen outfielders left the Sox with nowhere to turn.

All he has done since is hit .314 with two homers, 16 RBI and a .987 OPS.

Herald - Nava: Sox’ surprise spark

The Daniel Nava experience is a wondrous, surprisingly enjoyable ride.  Not a single person on Earth thought he was going to perform at the level he has.  And while we keep waiting for some sort of drop-off, the opposite happens and he throws up 4 hits on the Blue Jays.

This is sort of a repeat of the show Josh Reddick put on last season, where he was batting above .400 for a pretty solid stretch.  He did trail off a bit as the year progressed, but ended up with a more-than-respectable .280 average by season's end (with 7 home runs and 28 RBIs).   Reddick displayed enough potential that the Sox were able to flip him to Oakland for Sweeney and Bailey.  No one is disappointed in Sweeney's play (and well, Bailey's yet to show up), but Reddick is morphing into a dynamite player.  Through 50 games he's already doubled his home run output from last season (more than any current Sox) and has 27 RBIs. 

It would be nice if, like Reddick, Nava's going to stay consistent enough that he's in the majors for good.  Once Crawford and Ellsbury return, I'd much rather see Nava platooning in right with Sweeney or Ross than McDonald.

And, not to shift gears too dramatically, but hopefully the rise of Reddick and Nava are making it clear to the Red Sox front office that we don't need to drop $140 million on a Carl Crawford just because he's available.  We had two more than capable corner outfielders just waiting for their chance, who delivered once they got it.  Trust in your farm.  Or, fire the people that are telling you these guys can't be every day outfielders at the Major League level. 

On Page 2, speaking of young outfielders...

Enemy Chatter: The short bullpen wall hurt Reddick, helped Ortiz

I often wonder what opposing teams, their beat reporters and bloggers are saying about the Red Sox after playing the Red Sox. Here's a dose of 'enemy chatter' from Oakland.

Josh Reddick very nearly caught Ortiz’s second homer; it banged off his glove just as Reddick hit the low wall in right and flipped over into the bullpen.

“I thought I scaled it pretty good,” Reddick said. “That Fenway short wall hurt me, it jack-knifed me in half. Tough break.”

The ex-Red Sox outfielder said he’s robbed “a 1,000″ of those during batting practice and that was his first chance during a game.

San Francisco Chronicle

Almost. You ALMOST had it Josh, but you didn't. I would think that someone who has done that 1,000 times, would be able to get that one. It was very catchable, it wasn't caught,  the A's fell short by a margin that was much larger than the home run created, so catching that ball would not have made a difference.

Kudos on the three-run homer.

Josh Reddick tried to learn about the A's through "Moneyball"

Josh Reddick was surprised to find out he was traded to Oakland for Andrew Bailey and Ryan Sweeney. Even worse than the shock was the lack of knowledge he had of the organization that he was headed to. So he watched "Moneyball" on his way to Oakland to get a bit of a history lesson.

Herald:

"I was very shocked," he said. "If it was going to happen, I thought it would happen at the winter meetings. At first I was upset, and I had very mixed feelings about it. I was just so surprised, because it came out of the blue."

Worse yet, Reddick knew next to nothing about Oakland, so on his first flight to the West Coast, he watched the movie "Moneyball" on the plane just to see if he could glean anything significant about how the A’s and general manager Billy Beane operated.

Was it helpful?

"Not really," he said. "But once I actually talked to Billy and he made it clear I was going to be put out there every day no matter what, it was a real confidence booster. That’s something I was never guaranteed in Boston _ you never knew who they might be bringing in."

I want to point out an error made in the movie before I move on. In the movie, the A's want to acquire Jeremy Giambi for the 2002 season, but they already had him on the team. He was thrown out at the plate by Jeter in that famous cut-off play in the 2001 ALDS. So, good thing Reddick didn't learn anything from the movie because it was ALL WRONG! Well, that may be extreme, it was fairly accurate.

Aside from that, I am glad to hear that Josh Reddick will get to play every day. He has bounced between AAA and the majors for the past few years and he deserves to get a real shot on a big league club.

SI's Corcoran doesn't like Sox downgrade in Right

For what it's worth (probably not much) SI.com's Cliff Corcoran isnt a big fan of the Reddick for Baily swap. 

Here's what he has to say:

The Red Sox are serious about Daniel Bard starting, aren't they? I still think that's a mistake on its own merits, and now they've downgraded rightfield to support the experiment, swapping out Reddick for Sweeney. Reddick is only two years younger than Sweeney and has flaws to be sure, most significantly his inability to get on base due to low averages and poor plate discipline, but he's a toolsy player who showed some promise in his rookie campaign last year (after cups of coffee in 2009 and 2010), and could eke out a career as a corner outfielder based largely on his power at the plate and play in the field. Sweeney, meanwhile, has proven himself to be overextended as a starter, particularly in a corner, due to an utter lack of power (.378 career slugging percentage after 1,681 plate appearances) and speed, only middling patience, and a career .233/.306/.289 line against lefties in 362 PA.

Unfortunately, this was part of a Hot Stove Roundup, so Corcoran doesn't have the space to explain why the Bard transition is a mistake.  I don't see it.  Worst-case scenario, he struggles as a starter and we convert him back to a reliever, bolstering the bullpen.  Of course that would leave yet another hole in the rotation, but hey, we've got Pepe Silvia Carlos Silva. Problem already solved.

And I think Corcoran is greatly over-valuing Josh Reddick as well as the Sox need for a right fielder.  We all got caught up in Reddick-fever with his ridiculous start, but all he really did was showcase himself and up his trade value.  Reddick is never going to be Barry Bonds.  And the Red Sox don't need Barry Bonds.  The offense is already a juggernaut. 

They just need someone competent that can put the ball into play and run down some fly balls until Kalish is ready to take over every-day duties (or they bring in someone new).  And between McDonald, Sweeney and Aviles, we should have that capability.  Getting someone to replace Reddick was never going to be hard.  Getting a legitimate closer that can pitch in the AL East?  Not quite as simple. 

Photo: Projo.com

Your Morning Dump...where the Sox should probably work on filling that closer position.

Every morning, well most mornings and sometimes in the afternoon, we compile the links of the day and dump them here... highlighting the big storyline. Because there's nothing quite as satisfying as a good morning dump.

The Red Sox do not necessarily need to obtain a closer via trade or free agency. Replacing Jonathan Papelbon could be as easy as giving the job to Daniel Bard.

But the wide selection of closers available gives general manager Ben Cherington an opportunity to be creative. Picking one up would allow Bard to be tried as a starter or remain in his role as a versatile set-up man.

Free agents Francisco Cordero, Brad Lidge, Ryan Madson, and Francisco Rodriguez remain on the market. With only a limited number of teams - the Reds and perhaps one or two others - seeking a closer, the Red Sox could get an experienced closer at a bargain later this month.

“We’ve certainly made progress as far as understanding more what it’s going to take to acquire pitching of all sorts of flavors,’’ Cherington said yesterday. “We felt like that’s what this was really going to be about for us. It would be more information gathered than execution most likely, these days in Dallas.’’

The trade market could prove a better route. The Red Sox are engaged in discussions with Oakland regarding closer Andrew Bailey. The righthander is coming off the worst season of his career (3.24 ERA, 1.10 WHIP), but is only 27 and is healthy after starting last season on the disabled list.

Globe:Many options for Red Sox regarding closers

Well before I can even berate this list, it's been reported that K-Rod is accepting salary arbitration from the Brewers and set up for John Axford. Apparently closing isn't high on the list for K-Rod anymore.

With that out of the way, let's see what's left to pick from. Cordero had a quality year: 37 saves, 2.45 ERA. Hitters only managed to hit .198 against him last year. But the 36 year old wasn't able to dominate like he used to as he had a career low in strikeouts per 9 innings (5.4). His stats scream out CONTRACT YEAR but for a one year stop gap... he could be the guy.

Lidge was relegated to setting up Madson after a shoulder injury landed him on the DL. He only pitched 19 2/3 innings but he didn't meltdown like he did in 2009. It's probably the best for him to re-sign with Philly and set up Papelbon then try and close, especially in Boston. As for Madson, he did really well replacing Lidge (32 saves out of 34 opportunities) but at 32, is he really worth the 4 year deal that Scott Boras is looking for him? Hell no.

That leaves us with Oakland's Andrew Bailey who is 27 and has potential to be a really good closer. As Peter Abraham said above, he's had his worst year but he had a 3.24 ERA & a WHIP of 1.104.  This would mean that a deal would have to be centered around Josh Reddick, which sucks because it would be great to see him play a full year in right field, but Bailey would be worth it. If the Sox can pull off this trade without giving up Reddick or future third basemen Will Middlebrooks, then Cherington suddenly looks like a genius.

Of course, if he had showed any interest in the best closer in the market, Jonathan Papelbon, the Sox wouldn't be in this position.

Rest of the Links: Globe:Ortiz accepts arbitration|Team in need of toughness|Many options for Red Sox when it comes to a closer|Herald:Valentine stokes Yankees-Red Sox rivalry fire|Ortiz chooses to accept arbitration|Red Sox play waiting game|CSNNE:Converting Bard to starter will be no easy task|Addressing the OF not a priority| Ortiz takes Sox up on arbitration offer|WEEI:The waiting game|Madson in musical chairs game|

Your Morning Dump...where it looks like Papi will return

Every morning, well most mornings and sometimes in the afternoon, we compile the links of the day and dump them here... highlighting the big storyline. Because there's nothing quite as satisfying as a good morning dump.

David Ortiz [stats]’ tenure with the Red Sox [team stats] will last for at least one more season.

With the market for full-time designated hitters shrinking, Ortiz is planning to accept salary arbitration before tonight’s 11:59 p.m. deadline, a source close to the slugger said last night. By doing so, he will be agreeing to a one-year contract worth more than his $12.5 million salary in 2011.

For weeks, Ortiz has been seeking a multiyear deal. And while it’s possible agent Fern Cuza could meet again with the Red Sox before the deadline, it seems unlikely at this point that the sides will agree on a two-year deal for Ortiz’ desired annual salary, according to the source.

Herald | Expect David Ortiz to be back

The various beatwriters seem to be in disagreement (on Twitter) as to whether Ortiz will accept arbitration. Some say he's planning to, some say the decision has been made, some say it has not. But seemingly everybody agrees he will be back.

The major reason is that he wants to return, and the Red Sox still want him. Also important: it looks like his market has dried up. That part amazes me. All you need to create a market is two or three teams (just ask Albert Pujols). There isn't a single team who would offer Ortiz a strong enough two-year offer to make him turn down arbitration and try to get a bidding war going? That may be true, especially considering it takes a first-round pick to sign him.

Most speculation seems to have Ortiz getting around $14 million in arbitration, so it's a no brainer to take it for Papi if the Sox won't go to 2 years, $25 million like he wants. What continues to confuse me about the on-going Ortiz/Red Sox negotiations is how they don't end up meeting in the middle. Why not settle on 2 years, $21 or $22 million and call it a day? We can afford it, he gets his security against a steep drop-off or injury. It's a win-win. Just get it done so we don't have to have this conversation every year.

On page 2, the Sox are pushing for Andrew Bailey.

Your Morning Dump... Where Rick VandenHurk happened

This sums up the Sox season pretty well (Photo by Jim Rogash/Getty Images)

Every morning, we compile the links of the day and dump them here... highlighting the big storyline. Because there's nothing quite as satisfying as a good morning dump.

Erik Bedard didn’t need a thesaurus to describe the third inning of the Red Sox’ 7-5 loss to the Orioles last night.

He summed it up in one word.

“Long.’’

He hadn’t started since Sept. 3 because of a sore knee and a left lat strain, and after the long layoff manager Terry Francona wanted to keep him on a pitch limit.

There was no way, Francona said, Bedard would come anywhere near 100 pitches.

He wound up throwing 54 in the third inning alone, giving up four runs (just one earned) on three hits. His night lasted just 2 2/3 innings as the Sox took their fourth loss in the past five games.

“It was a long inning,’’ Bedard said. “I just tried to battle and tried to limit the damage.’’

Globe - Long third inning does in Bedard

This is my fourth attempt at writing this morning's dump.  The previous three were an odd mixture of vulgarities and incoherent swipes at the keyboard in between violent, heaving sobs.  Did you know it's possible to cry so much that you short out your keyboard? 

The Red Sox lost a game where the Orioles threw Rick VandenHurk on the mound to start.  Not even Rick VandenHurk's mother thought Baltimore stood a chance last night.  And while Rick VandenHurk didn't pitch so well (yes, I really really enjoy the name Rick VandenHurk), the Red Sox pitching was just that much worse. 

Tell me if this sounds familiar: Red Sox starter struggles early, is out of the game by the third inning.  Sox batters battle back, giving the Sox the lead heading into the 8th.  Tito turns the game over to his oh so amazing bullpen, who immediately vomit all over your hopes and dreams. 

With the Yankees taking down the Rays last night, we didn't lose any ground in the Wild Card.  But if this is the type of effort we take to the field against an Orioles squad lead by Rick VandenHurk, I don't know that I want to deal with the anger and frustration of getting blown out in October.

And in related news, I'm pretty sure I've lost the ability to pretend to be optimistic about this season. 

Also, be sure to check out the 'Yankee fan' link from CSNNE below.  What a dick.

On Page 2, Manny is picking up a bat again (to play baseball this time).

Taking Stock: Yankees - Sox series

After each series, we'll be taking stock in each player's...and maybe manager's...performance. If we like what we see, we're buyin'. If we don't, we're sellin'. Or maybe we'll just hold onto our stock until we see more next series.

Jacoby Ellsbury: He didn't have a spectacular series, but 4-for-11 isn't too shabby. Ellsbury hit his 24th homer of the year in game 2, a 2-run homer to left. Ells is keeping his average consistent, currently at .313, and will take this batting performance to October.

Dustin Pedroia: Pedey batted .357 (5/14) with a 2-run homer in the third game. That home run was his 18th, which is a new career high for Pedroia. He must be eating that muddy chicken.

Adrian Gonzalez: Just because he is Adrian Gonzalez and is batting .341. Well, he is doing a bit more than that, but we all know he is awesome.

Josh Beckett: He didn't have his best outing of the season, but it was enough for the win. Beckett hasn't had his dominant starts as of late, but he is still the ace of the staff.

David Ortiz: Big Papi hit is 28th homer of the season on Wednesday and went 4-for-10 in the series. That is what you want to see against the Yankees. Don't get me wrong, I would love to see a 10-for-10 performance, but 4-for-10 is acceptable.

Josh Reddick: The decline continues, and he is putting up his best J.D. Drew numbers. A 1-for-8, series and a declining season average (.276) is enough for a sell.

 

Jon Lester: He had to word hard to get through 5 innings, and hold the Yankees to just 1 run in that time. He still has the best record in the rotation and will likely end the season that way. Lester hasn't made it past the sixth inning in 3 starts, so I want to see some 7+ inning outings going into the playoffs.