(Brearley Collection Photo from Opening Day 1947)
Sports Illustrated's Joe Posnanski -- Decent writer. Maybe you've heard of him? -- has an article at SI.com detailing, mathematically, how improbable it was for Dan Uggla to go on his 33-game hitting streak. Spoiler Alert: pretty unlikely! In fact, using his equation Posnanski determined that the odds of Uggla's hitting streak were more than 3 million to 1 against.
In that same article, he writes that many people have asked him whether Joe DiMaggio's 56-game hitting streak was statistically less likely than Teddy Ballgame's 84-game on-base streak.
Williams reached base 84 straight games in 1949. He also reached base in every game from July 20, 1941, to the end of the season. That guy was pretty good at getting on base.
So to figure the 84-game on-base streak … one more time, we need to figure out the odds of Williams reaching base in a game. Well, I’m going to tell you something amazing. Between 1939 and 1958, that’s 20 years, Ted Williams played in 1,980 games in which he got at least three plate appearances. Almost 2,000 games. Do you know how many times he did not reach base? Go ahead. Take a guess.
Wrong. The answer: 139.
Yeah. That’s 139. The man reached base in NINETY THREE PERCENT of the games when he got at least three plate appearances. The chances of Ted Williams reaching base in a game was higher than Rick Barry’s free-throw percentage.
So.... wow! You don't need to have been around to witness the Ted Williams era to know just how great he was. But every once in a while you'll hear a story about Williams or see a statistic that just blows your mind. This is one of those times.
Still, DiMaggio has Teddy beat in the "improbable" category.
DiMaggio odds of 56 straight hits was about 82,000 to 1.
Williams odds of 84 straight games reaching base: About 406 to 1.
Quite a difference there. But, this doesn’t necessarily mean that DiMaggio’s streak is more impressive. It really means that Ted Williams was incredibly awesome at getting on base. The odds of DiMaggio going on that 84-game on-base streak — as great as he was — were more than 23,000 to 1.
Even more impressive, Williams' streak came in 1949, not 1941 when he hit .406 and had an OBP of .553. In '49 he only hit .343 with an OBP of .490. Yikes, that guy was good.